With no new crop contract prices and heavy stocks of some edible beans, the market outlook isn’t promising.
But Sean Mackenzie of Fieldcrest International, a special crops marketer, believes a few beans look good to grow.
“The sure one at this point is pinto beans,” said Mackenzie, who presented a market outlook at the Manitoba Special Crops Symposium.
“Even if you increase the acreage 15 percent, which is a big increase, you still might not have enough if demand stays the same, which I think it will.”
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Mackenzie thinks pinto, black and navy beans offer farmers a good shot at making good money, but cranberry beans look like a sure loser.
Chinese farmers can grow and sell cranberry beans much cheaper than can Canadian farmers, Mackenzie said.
“China has just kicked us in the shins,” he said in an interview.
With ending stocks this year of about 100,000 bags of cranberry beans, there is no reason to expect prices to climb out of the basement.
“That market is sick and I don’t think it has too rosy of a market scenario looking forward,” he said.
However, pinto ending stocks of 470,000 bags “is not a burdensome carryover,” nor is the expected 570,000 for 2009-10.
Navy looks good too, especially if farmers drop acreage by 15 percent as expected. Late in 2009-10, stocks may decline to the point that a rally takes place.
However, Manitoba farmers may favour pinto over navy because the former has an average yield of 21.3 bags per acres compared to 14.7 for the latter.
Black bean could be the dark horse this year. It has a good and easily accessible market in Mexico, which no longer has quotas blocking it, but it is also the most volatile of all the beans.
