Winter 2022 isn’t going out pleasantly or quietly.
From civil unrest to widespread product shortages to a long, long cold spell that’s made locked-down life even more cabin-feverish than it had to be, this has been a challenging second half of the winter.
There are lots of positive signs out there, fortunately. Border blockades, which were posing a threat to all sorts of farm and agriculture trade, have lifted peacefully. Much of “normal” life is re-opening, depending on the province and particular place.
And February is fading, as it does.
Read Also
Vegetable oil stocks are expected to tighten this year
Global vegetable oil stocks are forecast to tighten in the 2025-26 crop year, this should bode well for canola demand.
Back in the years following the great financial crisis of 2008-09, a new normal arose in the midst of similar civil strife, and it was hard to grasp what the new normal was going to be with all the political noise. Remember the occupy Wall Street events and encampments and the rise of the Tea Party?
It took a few years for what analysts and economists began calling the “new normal” to become clear, as the social unhappiness lingered and hogged the headlines. But an era of ultra-low interest rates and money-printing by central banks somehow created a world of weak economic growth and continuing low inflation. That mostly held true until the late 2010s, when stronger growth occurred, yet inflation stayed subdued.
Then the pandemic hit, and a flurry of economic, financial and political responses hit like a hurricane. Once again, the world’s economies were kept alive, avoiding a 1930s-like depression. But now, it seems obvious that some of the massive monetary and fiscal interventions by governments have helped create an inflationary storm, which has exacerbated the situation created by global supply chain disruptions and product shortages.
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about how the widespread beliefs of most (including me) last year that the growing inflation would be “transitory” have now rapidly been replaced by an acceptance that inflation has set in and will last for either the medium or long term. Few think it will fade fast in coming months.
Is that part of a new new normal? We’re probably close to the beginning of a fresh era that will govern the post-pandemic world. What will its outlines be?
As February fades and spring glimmers on the horizon, we can look forward to more pleasant temperatures. Will the civil strife melt away too? That didn’t happen in 2009, so there could be a lot of noise for the next couple years.
But for now, we seem to be sailing into uncharted seas, and beyond the squall of inflation we’re now fighting, it’s hard to guess what our voyage is going to be like.
