Shaunavon, Sask., farmer Brett Meinert has received some pleasant calls recently.
Mustard buyers want his crop.
In the last few weeks, prices have risen by a few cents per pound.
“I just wish I had some to sell,” said Meinert with a chuckle.
Meinert, like many mustard growers, ended up with a bad crop this year. Unlike the bin-busting crop of 2004, or the good-sized 2005 crop, this year crops in his area were generally small. Meinert only got about one-third of his usual yield.
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But what’s bad for an individual farmer can be good for prices when many farmers share that bad fortune, as is the case with mustard now.
Canada produces the vast majority of the world’s mustard trade.
For 2006-07, production and supply decreased because of a 34 percent lower seeded area and lower yields.
Buyers are short of supply and beginning to try to make up for it by sweeping up on-farm stocks.
“It’s pretty early for them to be running out,” said Meinert.
In 2004 the Prairies produced 306,000 tonnes, leaving a massive carryover of 190,000 tonnes. That wasn’t much alleviated by 2005’s 201,000 tonne crop.
But this year only 120,000 tonnes were produced and by the end of the crop year, Agriculture Canada expects stocks to fall to 105,000 tonnes.
Farm marketing adviser John Duvenaud said prices have moved up a couple of cents per pound since the start of October and he expects to see that continue.
“My tendency is to leave mustard in the bin until the prices catch up to the new fundamentals,” said Duvenaud.
With many buyers needing to buy mustard this year, because their contracted-production base did not produce enough, prices will likely gradually rise until their needs are met.
This isn’t a blip in the market or a short-term rally.
“The process has started, but hasn’t moved very far yet,” said Duvenaud.
“Mustard prices are improving. I’d go slowly with sales now.”
But it’s a perfect time for moving the off-grade junk that some producers have hung on to since 2004.
“Buyers are starting to handle some of that off-grade stuff,” said Duvenaud.
They might be only paying a penny a pound but “that’s better than dumping it in the slough. What else are you going to do with it?”
Mustard won’t go through the roof this winter, so growers shouldn’t be too greedy. Buyers need to buy, but there’s still lots to buy.
“Stocks are still pretty high,” said Duvenaud.
Recent bids for mustard have been about 17 cents per lb. for yellow mustard, 16 cents for brown, 13 cents for Forge oriental mustard and 11.5 cents for Cutlass oriental.
Meinert said he might not be able to make a lot with the small crop he’s got in the bin, but better prices put a smile on his face regardless.
“It’s a nice feeling for the moment,” said Meinert.
