Rain preoccupied Canadian pulse growers as they seeded, and moisture here and in India will continue to be a market mover this summer.How the monsoon unfolds in India will help determine pea and lentil prices, said Greg Kostal, president of Kostal Ag Consulting.The rain that falls between June and September provides the moisture needed to grow India’s kharif crops now being seeded and to fill reservoirs for irrigating rabi crops, which are planted in November.Cumulative monsoon rainfall for the week ended June 11 was seven percent below the long-term average but that was the best figure since 2006.The Indian government’s long-term forecast calls for normal monsoon rain and that was released in April before a La Nina emerged in the Pacific Ocean that has the potential to boost rainfall in the world’s largest pulse producing and consuming country.A good monsoon would elevate pigeon pea output, one of the main pulses grown during the kharif season. Canadian pulse growers directly benefited from last year’s disappointing monsoon and kharif harvest because large green lentils are a good substitute for pigeon peas.Experts predict an eight percent hike in 2010 kharif pulse plantings. But it could climb higher with the recent Indian government decision to substantially increase the minimum support price for pulses. The MSP for pigeon peas amounts to $4.21 per bushel.“This will just encourage larger acreage growth of pigeon peas,” said Kostal.If the monsoon delivers on its promise, it will prevent a replication of last year’s soaring large green lentil prices, which peaked near 40 cents per pound.Kostal expects prices to fall somewhere between today’s spot price of 30 cents per lb. and new crop offerings of 20 cents per lb. if the monsoon season is good.Heavy rainfall would also replenish reservoirs for the rabi crop. That could have long-term ramifications for prices of Canadian yellow peas, which in India are seen as an alternative to chickpeas. This year’s rabi harvest, which recently wrapped up, was bigger than expected.Indian agriculture commissioner Gurbachan Singh recently pegged rabi production at 10.5 million tonnes, up 600,000 tonnes from the previous rabi harvest and 500,000 tonnes beyond what the government had targeted.In his Stat Publishing newsletter, Brian Clancey said pea markets are unable to find a bullish tone given the strong rabi harvest and the recently increased minimum support prices for pulses.Kostal said the big chickpea harvest in India is contributing to “flat, sloppy, sluggish” desi prices and a “sustained passiveness” from government and private importers to buy Canadian peas.The Canadian Grain Commission reports that 1.35 million tonnes of peas have been exported through licensed facilities through week 44 of the 2009-10 crop year. That compares to 1.67 million tonnes at the same time last year. Total pea supply was nearly identical at the start of the two marketing years, with 3.84 million tonnes on hand in 2008-09 and 3.86 million at the start of this campaign.Kostal said the monsoon season will also influence food price inflation in India, as will associated government policies such as the 15 percent pulse import subsidy that expires on Sept. 30, 2010.
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