An analysis of satellite imagery reveals farmers in Western Canada could harvest more spring wheat than earlier anticipated.
Using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, researchers at Statistics Canada have determined there will be 17.6 million tonnes of spring wheat production, which is well above the Canadian Wheat Board’s June estimate of 15.9 million tonnes.
It would also be well above the recent 10 year average of 16.3 million tonnes of spring wheat production.
The NDVI model predicts an average western Canadian yield of 37.3 bushels per acre. Alberta will lead the way with 44.6 bu. per acre, followed by Saskatchewan at 34.1 and Manitoba at 30.5.
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The yield estimates are based on NDVI maps showing lush vegetative growth in the western half of the prairie region.
“They seem to have very good growing conditions,” said Frederic Bedard, senior remote sensing and GIS analyst with Statistics Canada.
“So even if there are some areas that were affected by floods this year, there are other areas that did very well.”
His calculation for canola production in Western Canada as of July 31 is 13.9 million tonnes, which is about 500,000 tonnes more than Agriculture Canada has forecast in its latest supply and disposition report.
The average canola yield for Western Canada is forecast at 33 bu. per acre. Alberta will again lead the way with 36.7 bu., followed by Saskatchewan at 31.6 and Manitoba at 29.6.
Stuart McMillan, weather and crop analyst with the Canadian Wheat Board, said the CWB will release its production estimates at the end of the month. He wouldn’t divulge the spring wheat number, but said it will be higher than the June estimate.
“The prospects have improved somewhat for the western Canadian crop from earlier on in the season,” he said.
But he said NDVI-based production estimates can be unreliable predictors of yields because they simply measure the greenness of the vegetation. Depending on the time of the year, green isn’t always a good thing.
That is the case for Alberta where a lot of the crop is still in the milk or early soft dough stage of development.
“I would say that is not the position an Alberta farmer wants to be in at this point in August,” said McMillan.
“That gives me considerable concerns about the yield potential in a large part of the western growing area.”
Farmers need harvest conditions similar to 2009, with plenty of hot, dry weather for the remainder of August and September. As of Aug. 15, virtually none of the spring wheat crop was in the bin.
McMillan has polled a number of weather experts and there seems to be no consensus on late summer and early fall conditions. Some called for a wet and cool harvest, which would be the worst combination for growers in Alberta and elsewhere.
Bedard will produce durum, barley and pulse crop production estimates in the coming days and weeks.
Statistics Canada will release its first survey based production estimate of the year on Aug. 24, followed closely by the CWB’s estimates.
Production estimates based on NDVI technology are usually within seven percent of the spring wheat number and nine percent of the canola number in the StatsCan producer surveys.
Agriculture Canada is working on enhancements to the NDVI model that will take climatic conditions like precipitation, temperature and soil characteristics into account.
Bedard believes remote sensing technology will eventually replace some traditional methods for creating agricultural statistics, such as producer surveys, because it offers a number of advantages.
“We don’t have to contact the farmers. We get the data very quickly and it’s an objective data source. So we see a lot of benefits,” he said.
