Mexican durum crop in trouble

Canada to face less export competition

Reading Time: 3 minutes

Published: March 27, 2025

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A low angle shot of a durum crop that's not yet ready to be harvested.

SASKATOON — Canada will face less competition from one of its competitors in the durum market this year.

Mexico’s crop is in big trouble, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

It expects Mexico to export a paltry 50,000 tonnes of durum in 2025-26, down from 100,000 tonnes this year and 850,000 tonnes the previous year.

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That is due to two consecutive years of lower-than-average production in Sonora, the largest wheat-producing state that accounts for about half of the country’s production.

MarketsFarm analyst Bruce Burnett said Mexico often competes with Canada in markets like Algeria.

“It’s positive news for the (Canadian) durum market I would say, in that one of our competitors is going to go away this year by the looks of it,” he said.

“The Mexican government has subsidized exports of durum in the past, so that has made them competitive.”

Mexico’s production woes should be supportive for prices, especially considering what is happening in North Africa.

The Group on Earth Observations Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM) service said production prospects are poor in that major importing region of the world.

“Expanding dry conditions have degraded yield prospects in Morocco and northwestern Algeria and are now impacting more areas throughout the Middle East,” it stated in its March 6th Crop Monitor for Early Warning report.

GEOGLAM said there is “minimal expectation for recovery” even if substantial rainfall is received in the coming weeks. It is forecasting Morocco’s wheat yields will be 28 percent below average.

Rainfall is needed to prevent crop failure in northwestern Algeria, but the crop looks better in the rest of the country. National wheat yields are forecast to be five percent below average.

Tunisia is the exception this year. Crop biomass is looking good, and wheat yields are expected to be three percent above average.

Back in North America, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service is forecasting Mexico’s total wheat production will decrease 39 percent to 1.6 million tonnes, primarily due to the problems in Sonora.

Durum-planting in the state is down 88 percent due to water scarcity. Nearly 70 percent of the state is under severe drought and dam levels were at 15 percent capacity as of February 1.

Farmers in Sonora dedicated 57 percent of their wheat plantings to bread wheat with the remainder seeded to durum.

“Authorities are expected to only allow two irrigations in the (fall/winter) cycle, which could drive down average yields,” the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service stated in a March 21st report.

“Sources indicate that when dams reach below ten percent of capacity, authorities in Sonora are likely to restrict water primarily to human consumption.”

Most of Mexico’s 2025-26 durum production will be consumed within the country, making it a net importer of the crop for the first time in over two decades.

Tyson Giles, director of wheat trading at CHS Inc., recently told delegates attending the North American Millers’ Association’s spring conference, that Mexico could import 250,000 to 300,000 tonnes of the crop, according to a World-Grain.com article.

The U.S. should pick up some of that business, but that won’t offset what has been a disappointing 2024-25 export program.

Giles forecasts U.S. exports could be as low as 15 million bushels (408,200 tonnes), well below the USDA’s latest estimate of 20 million bu. (544,300 tonnes).

He said U.S. durum is US$25 to $30 per tonne more expensive than other origins into North African markets.

Giles expects the stocks-to-use ratio to far exceed the “comfort level” of 35 percent.

Demand from Mexico will endure, but tariffs could hurt sales to that market and bring the stocks-to-use up to 45 to 50 percent, he said, according to the World-Grain.com story.

He is forecasting U.S. farmers will plant between 1.8 and 2.3 million acres of the crop, compared to 2.1 million acres last year.

Giles noted that the Turkish government is thought to be sitting on 800,000 to one million tonnes of stocks.

Those supplies could be used to augment what appears to be a poor domestic durum crop, but if the country receives good spring rains and harvests a bumper crop those government stocks could quickly become burdensome in the global market.

About the author

Sean Pratt

Sean Pratt

Reporter/Analyst

Sean Pratt has been working at The Western Producer since 1993 after graduating from the University of Regina’s School of Journalism. Sean also has a Bachelor of Commerce degree from the University of Saskatchewan and worked in a bank for a few years before switching careers. Sean primarily writes markets and policy stories about the grain industry and has attended more than 100 conferences over the past three decades. He has received awards from the Canadian Farm Writers Federation, North American Agricultural Journalists and the American Agricultural Editors Association.

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