An ever-shrinking Turkish lentil crop combined with poor weather conditions in Canada is bolstering new crop lentil prices.
Estimates of Turkey’s crop range from 150,000 tonnes to 300,000 tonnes. But in either case, it will be well below the average crop of 483,000 tonnes.
“There is definitely going to be a good export opportunity for Canada into Turkey so we see a very strong lentil market,” said Murad Al-Katib, president of Alliance Grain Traders Income Fund, a Regina firm that controls an estimated 30 percent of the global lentil trade.
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He forecasts a Turkish crop of slightly more than 200,000 tonnes, which is in line with the 220,000 to 250,000 tonne forecast by a consultant working on behalf of Saskatchewan Pulse Growers.
If true, Turkey, usually a major exporter of red lentils, will have barely enough to feed its own population. India also has nothing to export and Australian production doesn’t come on line until December.
“Canada is the only game in town,” said Al-Katib.
But he expects plenty of supply to meet the looming demand. Al-Katib forecasts 2.2 million acres of Canadian lentils, up from Statistics Canada’s March estimate of 1.97 million acres.
Most of the seeded area is in Saskatchewan where the west has been dry but the south is in excellent shape.
“We’re going to move a big, big crop this year. I’m very, very optimistic about the year.”
Special crops analyst Brian Clancey doesn’t share that optimism.
“This strikes me as the most fierce weather market I’ve ever seen in my career and I’ve been involved in special crops since the very beginning,” said the editor of the Stat Publishing newsletter.
“Things are really looking very uncertain.”
Last week, several Alberta rural municipalities declared a state of agricultural disaster due to the severe drought that gripped eastern Alberta and western Saskatchewan for much of the early growing season.
“(Drought) has created a really potent situation here. You can tell because new crop bids to growers are going up. I don’t think they have ever been this high,” said Clancey.
Weekend rains provided some relief to Saskatchewan but Alberta remains bone dry.
In January, analysts predicted lentil prices would fall if growers planted more than two million acres. Today, most would welcome every additional acre.
The Rosetown, Sask., area is a barometer of Canadian production and growers there say conditions are reminiscent of the 1988 drought.
“If we’re going to go back to something like that, we’re going to be short one million acres of lentils,” said Clancey.
