Agriculture Canada is forecasting a big jump in lentil carryout despite acreage losses.
The department estimates farmers have abandoned 16 percent of the 3.36 million acres of lentils they intended to plant due to excessive spring rain. which will result in 2.82 million harvested acres.
Average yield is forecast at 20 bushels per acre, well below the recent five-year average, which will result in 1.43 million tonnes of production, down six percent from last year’s levels.
However, waning exports have created an expected carryout of 175,000 tonnes, the highest since 2006-07.
Read Also
Agriculture ministers agree to AgriStability changes
federal government proposed several months ago to increase the compensation rate from 80 to 90 per cent and double the maximum payment from $3 million to $6 million
“Exports are expected to decrease due to lower exports to Turkey and the Indian sub-continent,” Agriculture Canada said in its July 8 Pulse and Special Crops Outlook.
Saskatchewan special crops specialist Dale Risula said the carryout forecast seems reasonable, but he disagreed with how Agriculture Canada arrived at its number.
He estimates the province’s growers planted 2.4 to 2.5 million acres of lentils, up from two million acres he predicted a month ago.
Saskatchewan is home to 99 percent of the country’s lentil acreage, so Risula believes Agriculture Canada’s 2.82 million acre estimate is too high.
He thinks the 20 bu. average yield forecast is conservative given that many seeded crops are doing well.
“Depending on how the rest of the year goes, it could be that the yields could be outstanding.”
Risula has spoken to several growers who are optimistic about crop prospects.
“They are telling me that their lentils are looking superb,” he said.
Crop quality also looks excellent, other than areas that had excessive flooding and saturated soil.
Conditions are ripe for disease outbreaks, but growers have been spraying their crops more than usual and significant outbreaks are not on the horizon.
Risula agreed exports to Turkey will be down, but he’s not convinced India will reduce its purchases because there are reports of pulse crop shortages in that important export destination.
He expects more competition from Australia, Syria and the United States, which all have improved crop prospects in 2010-11.
“That could have some impact on our marketing of lentils,” he said.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts 655,000 acres of lentils in the United States, which is up 28 percent from its March prospective plantings report and 58 percent above 2009. Average yields would produce a crop of 315,000 tonnes and potential exports of 250,000 tonnes, up 20 percent from 2009-10.
Risula said his smaller acreage estimate could be offset by what he expects to be above average yields, and his better export outlook could be offset by increased export competition, so in the final analysis he can’t quibble with Agriculture Canada’s 175,000 tonne carryout figure.
That is up from 25,000 tonnes in 2009-10, 32,000 tonnes the year before that and 51,000 tonnes in 2007-08.
However, it is still a far cry from the record 485,000 tonne carryout in 2005-06, which dropped lentil prices to record lows.
A yield-slashing frost, which is a significant threat for this year’s late crop, could change the outlook dramatically.
