After the first week of scorching plus 30 C temperatures, analyst Don Roberts was worried.
“If we remain hot, real hot, then I’ve got a concern,” the Ag Commodity Research canola expert said July 23, before a brief break in the heat wave.
Since then, a series of hot days have roasted the Prairies, creating moisture stress for many crops but posing a particular threat to canola.
The damage potential presented by the heat helped support Winnipeg canola futures last week, offsetting the negative impact of a rising Canadian dollar.
Read Also
Canada-U.S. trade relationship called complex
Trade issues existed long before U.S. president Donald Trump and his on-again, off-again tariffs came along, said panelists at a policy summit last month.
Heat blast occurs when a canola crop gets caught in baking heat when it’s in flower. The flowers need time to bloom and set so that the plant can develop the maximum number of seed-holding pods.
If the heat is too intense when a canola plant is flowering, the flowers can fall off and some pods be aborted. In southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan, the heat is made worse by dry soil, causing stunted plants.
Whether heat blast is going to be a significant problem for prairie canola this year is impossible to tell right now, said Chris Anderson, a crop production specialist at the Canola Council of Canada.
“The impact of the heat won’t really be known for a few weeks,” said Anderson.
Heat blast, while bad for producers struck by it, is good news for farmers concerned with crop prices. The heat may have reduced Canadian canola production, while in Western Europe rain has damaged many crops.
That combination of factors might add up to stronger canola prices.
“The world (supply and demand) might be tightening up,” said Roberts.
The pain of heat blast will be felt by farmers with late seeded canola, which is common in central Alberta, northeastern Saskatchewan and in patches of the Red River Valley, where heavy spring moisture delayed seeding for weeks.
The bulk of the prairie crop was seeded on schedule and into good moisture. Most of those crops were done flowering when the heat wave hit, so their yields shouldn’t be badly affected.
But the late seeded crops were hit in the midst of flowering. Anderson said the amount of damage depends on more than the peak temperature during the day.
“Canola has the ability to compensate for heat stress,” he said.
As long as the night temperatures are in the low to mid-20s, the plants can recover before the next dose of heat.
Canola’s resiliency was seen last summer, when a two week heat wave hit the Prairies at about this same time, but canola yields were fine.
“What we’re seeing right now is very similar to last year’s crop season,” said Anderson.
“The heat turned on and the water shut off for most of the Prairies.”
Last year’s yields were generally good, a hopeful precedent for this year’s heat wave.
But as farmers scout their fields, they’ll want to count pods on their plants, Anderson said.
By July 30 the heat had spread into the U.S. Midwest where the soybean crop has entered a critical period for establishing yield. A hot dry week was forecast, causing traders to bid up soybean prices and that also helped to support canola prices.
