Bad weather was a greater challenge than normal this calendar year and it might prove to be so again in the coming year.
La Nina, a cooling of water temperature in the Pacific that tends to bring wet weather to Australia and southeast Asia and dry weather to parts of South America, is now the dominant factor.
It is behind the heavy rains in eastern Australia that slammed the quality of its wheat and barley crops just as harvest began. It is also behind the dry conditions that threaten Argentina’s soybeans and corn.
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It is also believed to be contributing to the dry conditions in the U.S. hard red winter wheat area of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.
Analytical firm Informa last week projected U.S. winter wheat seedings at 39.502 million acres, down from the 39.7 million it forecast in November but up from 2010 U.S. winter wheat seedings of 37.335 million.
While the soft red winter wheat crop further east is OK, the hard red crop’s condition going into winter dormancy is worse than normal.
And forecasters believe that La Nina’s strength could build in January and linger into the early summer of 2011.
The U.S. weather service’s three month forecast calls for continued dry weather in the hard red winter wheat region.
In Western Canada, much agricultural land in Saskatchewan and Manitoba was saturated as it went into winter.
Since freeze up, there has been above average snow in southern Alberta, parts of eastern Saskatchewan and most of western Manitoba.
Farmers are worried about a repeat of last spring where millions of acres were too wet to seed.
This winter, the La Nina is expected to bring cold temperatures but not moisture to Western Canada.
Environment Canada’s January to March forecast is for below normal precipitation in much of the southern and central grain belt of Saskatchewan, Alberta and southwestern Manitoba. Average moisture is expected in the border area of west-central Manitoba and east-central Saskatchewan and most of the northern grain belt of Alberta.
A different forecast from the Weather Network projects near normal precipitation for most of the Prairies through the winter.
Accuweather’s Brett Anderson’s blog recently outlined his analysis of a European weather forecasting model. It too calls for a cold Prairie winter. It also breaks it down by month.
It says January might bring precipitation to southern Manitoba, February will see normal precipitation for the Prairies.
More snow for Manitoba arrives in March. It sees a very cold March for Alberta and Saskatchewan.
If all these weather issues were not enough, Eduardo Sierra, a climate adviser for the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange in Argentina, said there is an increasing chance that another La Nina might follow on the heels of the current one.
Other weather concerns not necessarily connected with La Nina are dry conditions in winter crops in the Middle East and in China’s winter wheat area.
There is lots of time for moisture to arrive and save these crops but the situations deserve monitoring.
Long range forecasts are far from a sure thing but there are enough weather concerns to keep markets on edge through the winter, supporting grain and oilseed prices.
