Indian pulse market hinges on import duty policy

The potential loss of the Indian market to resumed import duties could lead to lower pea prices in March or April

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Published: February 20, 2025

A close-up of some yellow peas on the vine.

SASKATOON — India imported a massive volume of pulses in 2024 but will likely purchase far less this year, says an analyst.

Official data for December is not yet out, but the country purchased 6.16 million tonnes in the January through November period.

“Crops of pigeon peas and chickpeas were cut by weather vagaries, and the deficit could not have been filled by supplies of those crops from foreign supplies as they had limited production,” Gaurav Jain, analyst with AgPulse Analytica, said in an email.

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Rahul Chauhan, an analyst with iGrain India, estimates India will end up importing 6.63 million tonnes of pulses in 2024.

That would be double the previous year’s volumes and rival the record of seven million tonnes set in 2017.

“The sharp increase in imports highlights India’s growing reliance on external sources to meet domestic demand for pulses,” he said in a recent article published by the Global Pulse Confederation (GPC).

The imports account for one-quarter of the country’s 27 million tonnes of annual pulse consumption.

Jain expects pulse import volumes to be “significantly lower” in 2025 despite strong first quarter arrivals of Australian desi chickpeas and lentils.

“Availability of lentils, pigeon peas and yellow peas is much higher now than in early 2024,” he said.

“Current policies are expiring soon, and if (duty) waivers are not extended, Indian pulses imports may go down to three million tonnes from April to December.”

Chauhan estimates India imported 2.97 million tonnes of yellow peas in 2024, up from 10,000 tonnes the previous year.

“The spike in yellow pea imports, in particular, underscores a strategic shift to fill the supply-demand gap,” he said.

The surge was due to the removal of import duties starting in December 2023. That duty exemption is set to expire at the end of this month.

Deepak Rawat, director of trade at Empros, said in a separate GPC article that he expects India to extend the exemption by one or two months at a time until July or August, when new crop is available from Russia and Canada.

“I understand from some Indian sources that India’s yellow pea crop is expected to be short by 30 to 40 per cent compared to the annual production average of 800,000 tonnes, due to unfavourable weather conditions and reduced plantings,” he said.

Rawat estimates Canada still has one million tonnes of yellow peas available for export until the new crop harvest in six months.

Canada can sell to other markets if India does not extend the duty exemption.

“Because of EU sanctions on Russia, Europeans are looking to Canada to import yellow peas for their feed market,” said Rawat.

However, he still thinks the potential loss of the Indian market would lead to lower pea prices in March or April.

Lentils were the one pulse crop that experienced a decline in Indian imports in India, falling to an estimated 1.09 million tonnes in 2024 from 1.68 million tonnes the previous year.

India did not need to import as much of the crop because it still had leftover stocks from the massive 2023 program, said Jain.

Looking forward, India’s pigeon pea production “zoomed” to 4.35 million tonnes in 2024, up from 2.85 million tonnes the previous year.

“This will reduce the import demand for all types of lentils,” he said.

Jain expects one million tonnes of lentil imports in 2025 if the government keeps its duty-free import policy in place, which is set to expire at the end of March.

Ankita Parekh, head of global research, pulses and specialty crops at ETG, recently told GPC that Indian pigeon pea prices are down 40 per cent from where they were at planting due to increased seeded area, improved production prospects and higher imports of the commodity.

Jain said harvesting of India’s rabi (winter) crop is starting soon, and a lot hinges on the country’s chickpea yields.

The biggest unknown in the global pulse trade remains what India will do with its import policy.

“That will shape not just the trade but also the acreage intentions of farmers across all major producers,” he said.

“Let’s wait for the decisions from New Delhi.”

About the author

Sean Pratt

Sean Pratt

Reporter/Analyst

Sean Pratt has been working at The Western Producer since 1993 after graduating from the University of Regina’s School of Journalism. Sean also has a Bachelor of Commerce degree from the University of Saskatchewan and worked in a bank for a few years before switching careers. Sean primarily writes markets and policy stories about the grain industry and has attended more than 100 conferences over the past three decades. He has received awards from the Canadian Farm Writers Federation, North American Agricultural Journalists and the American Agricultural Editors Association.

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