India has been a lackluster buyer of Canadian pulses in the last half of this marketing year but several sources expect strong demand ahead.
According to an estimate from the United States Department of Agriculture, India will produce 14 million tonnes of pulses in the 2005-06 crop year, down from the record 15.2 million tonnes grown in 2004-05.
“Erratic monsoon rains last summer and inadequate soil moisture for the planting of the rabi season pulse crops in the major producing state of Rajasthan were factors for the lower production estimate,” stated the report issued by the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service.
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The forecast includes six million tonnes of chickpeas, one million tonnes of lentils, 800,000 tonnes of peas and 6.2 million tonnes of beans.
“Pulse imports are forecast at two million tonnes in 2005-06, up from an estimated 1.5 million tonnes in 2004-05 and actual imports of 1.7 million tonnes in 2003-04,” said the report.
The heightened demand potential out of the world’s largest pulse consuming nation was corroborated by Canadian special crops analyst Marlene Boersch in the March issue of Saskatchewan Pulse Growers’ PulsePoint magazine.
“Canada may export significantly more peas to this important destination next season,” she wrote.
Agricore United pulse division manager Rob Tisdale agrees with the market assessments provided by the USDA and Boersch but said the demand will only materialize if the price is right.
“As dealers we look at those (comments) as hopeful, but not to the point we would add the term bullish to it.”
Indian importers realize Canada is sitting on a huge stockpile of pulses and are waiting for prices to drop. In the meantime, little is happening.
“We have seen little extraordinary inquiry coming from India,” said Tisdale.
According to Agriculture Canada’s latest special crops outlook, the pulse industry will enter the new crop year with 500,000 tonnes of peas, which is a record level of carry-out stocks for the crop.
“The stockpile is there and the Indians are aware of it,” he said.
Coming eye-to-eye on an acceptable price for old-crop supplies could be a long waiting game but when a country that consumes 45,000 tonnes of pulses a day is looking at unfavourable growing conditions, it is well worth the wait.
“Once they jump in they can take whatever surplus we’ve got very quickly,” said Tisdale.
