Pulse and special crops acreage is expected to bounce back from last year’s flooded out mess but won’t return to the glory days.
Stat Publishing editor Brian Clancey is forecasting 6.7 million acres of the crops, up from 5.64 million last year but well below the 2008-10 average of 7.83 million.
“Competition for acreage has become more intense,” he said.
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It also has complete price transparency, with growers able to price their crops nearly two years in advance.
“That to me is a huge, huge competitive advantage,” said Clancey.
“When the Canadian Wheat Board is no longer the monopoly marketer of wheat and durum, that same advantage goes to wheat and durum.”
It will be tough for lentils, chickpeas and canaryseed to compete with wheat and durum and for peas and lentils to fend off the yellow tide, given those circumstances.
But so much land was taken out of production last year that every crop can go up in area without taking anything away from each other, which is why Clancey is comfortable with his forecast for a 19 percent increase in total pulse and special crops acreage.
“It looks dramatic on paper but we fell a long way. We fell three million acres and now we’re getting back one (million acres),” he said.
Peas account for most of the increase. Clancey sees 3.2 million acres, up 935,000 acres from 2011.
The 2011-12 average price is the second highest in the history of the crop, which could explain why peas have been flying off the farm.
Clancey expects about half of the 2011 harvest will move by the end of December.
Lentils are the only pulse or special crop expected to shrink, with Stat Publishing forecasting an 11 percent contraction to 2.36 million acres.
Average bids for every grade of lentil are down from a year ago, but the weighted average return is up because of the improved quality of this year’s crop. However, farmers are annoyed that this year’s No. 2 lentils fetch far less than last year’s No. 2s.
“You make more money but you get kicked on the price and the grades. People don’t always like that when that happens. They feel kind of betrayed by the market,” he said.
Red lentils in particular will lose ground to durum, Clancey said.
Bean acres should rebound because of record high prices and the hope of better seeding conditions in Manitoba. However, the crop will have a tough time fending off competition from soybeans.
“Farmers in Manitoba are more in love with soybeans than edible beans because soybeans are an easier crop to grow and market,” he said.
That’s why Clancey is forecasting 289,000 acres of beans, up 86 percent from last year’s crop but below what was planted in each of the three years before the 2011 moisture disaster.
Chickpea area is expected to rise 41 percent to 106,000 acres because of record world prices, but prices have probably peaked unless there is a crop wreck in India or Mexico, he said.
Canaryseed, mustard and sunflower acres are all expected to be up substantially over 2011 levels.