Black Sea ports remain closed due to the war, but the country is finding ways to ship carryover crop by river and rail
Ukraine’s 2022-23 crop production is going to be reduced but with ample carryover, the country could have decent volumes to ship, says an analyst from the war-torn country.
The Ukrainian government estimates farmers will plant 33.1 million acres of spring crops by April 1, which would be 8.4 million acres fewer than last year.
But yield prospects are going to be the big determining factor and that varies by crop, according to UkrAgroConsult.
Growers have an estimated 70 to 80 percent of their seed and fertilizer needs but only about half of the fuel and pesticides they require for spring field work.
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There is limited access to financing due to an inability to sell last year’s crop, a deficit of skilled workers and damage to agricultural equipment.
The upshot is that production of many key crops is expected to plummet.
UkrAgroConsult is forecasting 19.8 million tonnes of wheat production, down 38 percent from last year.
But there will be an estimated 4.7 million tonnes of leftover exportable supplies from the 2021 crop, lead analyst Sergey Feofilov said during a recent webinar.
The government recently started reissuing export licenses for the crop.
“This is rather inspiring information for exporters,” he said.
He is forecasting Ukraine will ship 16.3 million tonnes of wheat in 2022-23, down 14 percent from this year’s anticipated volumes.
Corn production is forecast at 19 million tonnes, a massive 55 percent decline from last year.
But there will be plenty of carryout from 2021-22, so exports are forecast to rebound to 28.5 million tonnes from an estimated 19.3 million tonnes in the current crop year.
“Barley production might not be so negatively affected as other cereals,” said Feofilov.
UkrAgroConsult is forecasting 6.1 million tonnes of barley production, a 35 percent drop.
Exporters managed to ship out 5.65 million tonnes of barley by late February, which was all the exportable surplus. That means there will be little carryover, which is why Feofilov is forecasting only three million tonnes of exports in 2022-23.
Sunflower production is forecast at 10.4 million tonnes, a 37 percent drop from last year and the smallest crop in 10 years.
However, crushers had only crushed 10 million tonnes of last year’s 16.5 million tonne crop as of late February and are now shut down, so there will likely be 6.5 million tonnes of carryout.
That means total supply for the 2022-23 year will be close to normal.
UkrAgroConsult is forecasting 6.5 million tonnes of sunflower oil exports, or nearly double this year’s volumes of 3.6 million tonnes.
Rapeseed is a fall-seeded crop, so production is only expected to drop slightly to 2.9 million tonnes from 3.1 million tonnes. Exports will be nearly identical at 2.7 million tonnes.
Pea production will be sliced in half to 272,000 tonnes from 578,000 tonnes in 2021. The country is expected to ship 200,000 tonnes of the pulse in 2022-23, down from 335,000 tonnes.
Feofilov did not specify but it is assumed the export estimates are made with the assumption that the war will be over and the country’s main ports in Odessa and Mykolaiv will be fully functional by the start of the new crop year in September.
There are only two small ports located on the Danube River that are operational.
They are expected to ship out about one million tonnes of grains and oilseeds to international markets via Romania. That represents about 30 percent of the country’s current export capacity.
The remaining 70 percent is moving by rail across the western border. An estimated 30,000 tonnes of grains and oilseeds are being shipped to market every day that way.
