If prairie crops managed to squeeze past this week’s frost threat, they should have some clear sailing for a few days, says Environment Canada.
And an Environment Canada forecast for a warmer than usual September for the Prairies should help producers bring in the crops.
But no forecasts can show where sporadic frost will appear in late August and early September, and the Prairies’ first frost dates are rapidly approaching.
That means tens of thousands of farmers will need luck in the race to beat time and temperature.
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“Hopefully, the forecast for above average temperatures for September will work out for farmers,” said Bob Cormier of Environment Canada in Saskatoon.
The federal weather service has been carefully watching the cold front and Arctic high pressure system that was forecast to hit the Prairies – especially the eastern Prairies – on Aug. 18 and 19.
After that, temperatures should return to normal, Cormier said.
Normal has not been common for farmers this summer. June, July and August temperatures have all been considerably below normal, enough to retard crop development.
The summer so far has been an average of three degrees cooler than normal, which may not sound like a big deal, but Cormier said those three missing degrees reflect the lack of normal summer heat waves that advance crop development.
Statistically, this summer has been remarkably cold.
“We have to go way back to find something this cool,” said Cormier.
For the Moose Jaw area, this summer has been the coldest since the first years of the 20th century.
“This is becoming one of the coldest (recorded) summers of all time in a lot of the prairie area,” said Cormier.
Many prairie areas had cool, wet springs that delayed seeding. When combined with a cool summer, that has left many underdeveloped crops heading toward an uncomfortable rendezvous with average first frost dates.
In eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba, frost usually arrives first between Sept. 10 and 12. Western Saskatchewan and eastern Alberta generally get frost after Sept. 12.
The Peace River country and the Prince Albert, Sask., area are usually hit with frost Sept. 3 or 4.
The Red River valley in Manitoba and southeastern Alberta tend to see frost the latest, between Sept. 20 and 22 on average.
Cormier said theses first frost dates are merely averages, and each year’s first frost can fall weeks earlier or later than the average.
“Brandon has had episodes of frost in August, well before that Sept. 10 date,” said Cormier.
