There is an adage in the grain market that big crops get bigger.
It means that when weather co-operates to produce bumper crops, each time agencies such as Statistics Canada assessed the crop size, the estimates get bigger.
The adage was heard a lot in recent days as analysts assessed Statistics Canada’s September crop report, issued Oct. 4.
It said production was huge, as expected.
The canola number, a record 15.96 million tonnes, was within the range of analysts’ expectations but prices edged lower the day of the report as traders expect even bigger numbers when StatsCan releases its final November crop report in early December.
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Canola exports will end up the third strongest in the past 10 years, according to recent Canadian Grain Commission weekly export data.
The Canola Council of Canada’s goal of reaching 15 million tonnes of production by 2015 was met two years early thanks to a record yield, averaging 36.9 bushels per acre, topping the previous record of 35.3 bu. set in 2009
Records are also forecast for wheat, with spring wheat set to produce 47.4 bu. per acre, shattering the previous record of 42.8 bu. set in 2011.
Durum yields are also a record at 42.2 bu. per acre (previous record 39 in 2011) as are barley at 68.2 bu. per acre (62.5 in 2008) and oats at 82.6 bu. per acre (77.8 in 2009.)
