Weather problems in China are cheering farmer-focused North American crop watchers glum about price prospects due to excellent U.S. corn belt conditions.But it’s too early to assume China’s multitude of problems today will result in bigger sales of North American canola, soybeans and corn after harvest.”It’s a world market desperate for some good news (about price prospects),” said Canadian Wheat Board market analysis and weather conditions head Bruce Burnett.”They’re off to a challenging year and we’ll have to wait and see. Is it necessarily going to result in big imports? Not necessarily.”Production prospects in China for winter crops, which are now maturing, and spring crops being planted now could have direct implications for Canadian canola, wheat and barley exports if Chinese domestic supplies come in less than expected.And shortfalls in soybeans and corn in China could add strength to North America’s two most dominant price-setting crops.Unlike recent years, when weather has been generally good, many Chinese farmers are facing poor spring conditions. In the winter, some areas faced drought, others had excess rain and snow and the spring has brought unfavourable weather, including snowstorms.Poor late winter growing conditions damaged fall-planted rapeseed in the Yangtze valley and, as it matures, its potential is limited.”It is likely that the production levels will be down from earlier estimates and from last year’s due to the rains and very cool weather of March and early April,” said DTN meteorologist Joel Burgio.”However, the winter months were not very cold so the crop was in good shape going into this period.”Already some Chinese analysts have reduced their rapeseed production prospects to 10 million tonnes or less, which would be about a 10 percent drop from last year’s 11 million tonne crop and the lowest since 2007’s approximately nine million tonne crop.In China’s northeast growing region, where the bulk of its corn, soybeans and spring wheat crops are produced, problems with corn planting and emergence are widely reported and hopes are growing in North America that a second disappointing crop could draw in more corn imports.China has recently grabbed attention around the world by its purchases of American corn. While wheat crops in the northeast are also affected by poor conditions, Burnett said the outlook for increased sales for China isn’t as good as it is with corn because China has good stocks of domestic wheat.And Burnett pointed out that China’s complicated political-economic situation makes it hard to form easy predictions about its import potentials. The government wants to keep farmgate prices high enough to keep farmers happy and avoid food price inflation that hurts people in the city.
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