An OECD-FAO outlook sets new targets of a 28 percent yield increase and six percent emission reduction
Global agricultural production systems need to be transformed if the world is going to eliminate hunger by 2030, according to a new report.
A 28 percent increase in agricultural productivity is required to meet that objective, according to an agricultural outlook report released by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.
That is more than triple what was achieved in the last decade. It would require a 24 percent increase in global crop yields and a 31 percent increase in global animal productivity.
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Meeting the zero-hunger goal would require a 10 percent increase in average calories per person per day in lower middle-income countries and a 30 percent increase in low-income countries.
The OECD and FAO have also set a simultaneous target of reducing agriculture-related greenhouse gas emissions by six percent over the next decade.
Their plan requires a fundamental shift in the way farmers are farming.
“The agriculture sector must manage to do more with less,” Mathias Cormann, secretary-general of the OECD, said in a webinar about the new outlook.
The business-as-usual approach would see global agricultural production increase by 17 percent over the next decade, while agricultural greenhouse gas emissions will increase by six percent.
The livestock industry will be responsible for 90 percent of the increase in emissions.
Lee Ann Jackson, head of the OECD’s agro-food trade and markets division, said the new approach requires a seismic change in government spending priorities.
“We really need to amp up our spending on innovation and also on infrastructure,” she said.
The 54 governments tracked by the OECD spend US$817 billion annually on agricultural subsidies. Only 13 percent of that is directed at spending on innovation and infrastructure.
By contrast, almost half of those subsidies are used to distort competition and undermine the role of trade. That results in higher prices paid by consumers, said Cormann.
“This has to change,” he said.
There also needs to be more money spent on education and knowledge transfer and on addressing food waste and loss and eliminating excess consumption of calories and protein.
Agriculture could feed an additional 1.3 billion people per year if food waste was eliminated.
The most immediate solution to the mounting food insecurity problems would be ending the war in Ukraine.
Wheat prices peaked at 60 percent above pre-war levels earlier this year. They have since settled down a bit but the outlook remains uncertain.
The report projects that 2022-23 global wheat prices will average 19 percent above pre-war levels if Ukraine fully loses its capacity to export the commodity. That figure rises to 34 percent if Russia’s exports are also cut in half.
“With food security already under pressure, consequences could be dire, particularly for the most vulnerable,” said Cormann.
Export bans and restrictions are only exacerbating food shortages.
“To mitigate the impact of the war on food security and food prices, we need more trade, not less,” he said.
Cormann encouraged a “doubling down” on efforts to improve transparency surrounding supplies of agricultural commodities.
Qu Dongyu, director general of the FAO, is concerned about what happens next year.
“Time is short to prevent a worldwide food security crisis in 2023,” he said.
The FAO Food Price Index reached a record high of 159.7 points in March. It has since dropped to 157.4 points in May but that is still 22.8 percent higher than year-ago levels.
Dongyu said an estimated 19 million more people could face chronic undernourishment globally in 2023 if exports from Russia and Ukraine remain constrained by war.
He said now is the time to act because winter wheat planting begins in October in the northern hemisphere.
