Pulse prices have shot up in India based on reports of massive crop damage caused by frost and unusually cool weather, although some analysts cast doubt on those reports.
Several Indian business newspapers and websites are reporting widespread damage to the country’s pigeon pea and chickpea crops.
The Indian Meteorological Department said minimum temperatures were 3 to 5 C below normal over parts of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, eastern Madhya Pradesh, northern Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand and the interior of Orissa.
A story carried on www.money-control.com said cold weather and sterility mosaic disease slashed 2010-11 pigeon pea production by 26 to 32 percent from previous estimates.
Read Also
Petition launched over grazing lease controversy
Battle continues between the need for generation of tax revenue from irrigation and the preservation of native grasslands in southern Alberta rural municipality.
That would knock pigeon pea output below 2009-10 levels, when India imported a surprising amount of Canadian green lentils to make up for its pigeon pea shortfall. Those purchases were the main driver behind last year’s strong green lentil prices.
The story said chana, or chickpeas, were also hurt by the adverse weather, stating that 20 to 80 percent of the crop is damaged.
Chana spot market prices shot up 12 percent since Jan. 1 and the February futures contract at India’s National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange rose seven percent between Jan. 1 and Jan. 22.
Most Indian analysts said the unusually cool weather affecting the winter or rabi season crop is the primary reason pulse prices are soaring.
Other explanations include strong marriage season demand, the late arrival of the kharif or summer season crop to the marketplace because of challenging weather conditions and rejection of Australian chickpea shipments due to extreme quality damage.
Stat Publishing said Canadian yellow pea prices firmed last week partially in response to India’s weather woes. Yellow peas are imported as a substitute for Indian chickpeas.
If pulse production is harmed to the extent reported on Moneycontrol and other Indian websites and newspapers, it would be a significant development because expectations for a huge Indian crop has been the biggest bearish factor in pulse markets.
Chuck Penner, president of Left- Field Commodity Research, told producers attending the Pulse Days portion of Crop Production Week in Saskatoon that he expected 17.5 to 18 million tonnes of Indian pulse production in 2010-11, up from the average 14.5 million tonnes. That estimate was made before the frost reports.
But as usual, there are conflicting reports about the condition of India’s crop. One website said the frost and rain damage is unprecedented while another said it is “still not very alarming.”
Drew Lerner, president of World Weather Inc., provided a North American perspective.
“I would say the odds are very much against widespread serious production cuts,” he said after studying the last few weeks of temperature data.
The thermometer dipped below freezing in only one small area in northern Rajasthan on one morning. Other regions flirted with freezing, with temperatures dropping to the 1 to 3 C range, which is abnormally cold but not crop-killing.
“That was close but my guess is that for crops that were pre-productive I don’t think that it would have been seriously damaging,” said Lerner.
He suspected pulse crops may have lost some leaf mass but he doubted production is reduced to the degree suggested in the reports out of India.
