OLDS, Alta. — Water shortages will force Saudi Arabia to import 3.8 million tonnes of forage annually in coming years, and Canada could supply some of it, says an international forage broker.
Ed Shaw, president of International Quality Forage and Feed, told the March 12 meeting of the Alberta Forage Industry Network that within three years, Saudi Arabia will no longer allocate any of its limited water supplies to forage. It will have to import hay for its dairy cows, camels, goats and sheep.
“The very top end dairy hay they want, the 22 percent protein, very little of it will come from Canada,” said Shaw.
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China purchased just over 20 million tonnes of wheat, corn, barley and sorghum last year, that is well below the 60 million tonnes purchased in 2021-22.
“But for the bulk of it, the camel, goat and sheep, (there is) huge potential. Huge potential.”
Shaw, who lived in Saudi Arabia for two years during the mid-1970s, said he is under contract to two Saudi companies that are looking for guaranteed, long-term forage supplies around the world.
He said the Middle East is also a developing market, as are India and Vietnam. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are mature forage markets.
China has huge potential as a market for Canada, but its zero tolerance for genetically modified material could be problematic.
Shaw said China’s forage demand doubles every year.
“I don’t know where the product is going to come from,” he said.
Australia shipped 100,000 tonnes of green feed into China recently, which Shaw said signals a Canadian opportunity to market timothy.
“Timothy is a much superior feed,” he said.
“We just need to find a good way to market and get the Chinese to accept, to understand timothy.”
Canada exports only one percent of its forage production because domestic use for livestock is so high.
Although there is great potential to tap international markets, Shaw said it is difficult to increase forage production to do that.
High cereal and oilseed prices discourage increased forage acres. Also, growers can forward market those crops, and the crop insurance system is well established.
“It’s in its infancy in forages. They go by tonnes per acre, not the quality. And for export, you need the quality.”
Hay is also subject to steep quality losses because of weather, making it a risky crop to grow with the hope of selling internationally.
New competitors for forage markets include Argentina, South Africa, the former Soviet Union, Sudan and Ethiopia.
