Grain markets this week will weigh the news that Russia is re-entering the grain export market against continuing worries about weather crop damage in Europe and North America.
On May 28 Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin said the export ban imposed following last year’s drought would end July 1.
The head of the Russian Grain Union said grain exports could total 20 million tonnes if the harvest reaches 85 to 90 million tonnes as expected.
Most analysts expected Russia’s return to the market and outlooks for global supply, demand and exports assumed Russian and Ukraine participation.
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China purchased just over 20 million tonnes of wheat, corn, barley and sorghum last year, that is well below the 60 million tonnes purchased in 2021-22.
So the news should not have lasting market impact, and traders will likely retain their focus on the weather and issues outside the grain market, such as the end of the U.S. quantitative easing program that has been pouring billions of stimulative dollars into the American economy.
The drought in Europe and cool, wet weather in Canada, the U.S. northern plains and the Midwest have dominated grain markets for the past month, driving prices higher. That was reflected in the May Pool Return Outlook for the new crop year
Malting barley soared $22 per tonne in the 2011-12 PRO for both two-and six-row types.
The CWB believes world barley production and ending stocks will rise in 2011-12, limiting the prospects for feed barley.
But the European drought, centred in France, Germany and Great Britain, is hurting spring barley the most, which is mostly grown for malt.
Yields are suffering and the prospect is growing that protein will rise too high to allow it to grade malt.
Global supplies of quality malting barley are tight after weather damaged harvests in Canada and Australia last year.
Still in question are the final seeded acreage numbers for Manitoba, southeastern and east-central Saskatchewan and North Dakota. All are significantly behind in seeding and received more rain on the weekend.
For example, as of May 22 North Dakota has only 21 of its barley seeded, down from the five-year average of 85 percent. It had only six percent of its durum seeded, compared to a normal 71 percent.
