It is a big if, but if Canada’s durum production recovers this year,
prices will probably fall, according to the Canadian Wheat Board’s
first pool return outlook for 2002-03.
The board expects the price of durum to fall by $14 to $27 per tonne,
depending on the quality class.
With more normal growing conditions in the coming crop year, global
production should recover to 33 million tonnes from this year’s 30
million tonnes. The board expects small production increases in Europe,
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North Africa and the United States, but that should be dwarfed by the
forecasted leap of western Canadian production to five million tonnes
from 3.1 million tonnes.
This year ending stocks of the major exporters fell significantly below
the five year average, but with normal conditions exporters’ ending
stocks should return to near normal.
CWB market analyst Dwayne Lee said Mediterranean crops are in the
middle of their cycle. The region is an important importer of durum and
the size of the crops there determines how much durum will be imported.
Most of North Africa is dry and desperately needs rain, but Turkey and
Syria are both well supplied with moisture.
