Across the Prairies many farmers are still trying to figure out what
crops offer the best hope for a good return this year.
Generally poor price outlooks for most crops make the selection
difficult. Drought and insect forecasts threaten to restrict farmers’
choices beyond the usual rotational considerations.
But with seeding on the horizon, many producers have looked at the
numbers, analyzed their soil conditions and made decisions.
Here is what some are planning.
Mike Kirk – Slim Pickins Crop Club, Climax, Sask.
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Disease and price comparisons have taken the shine off the Cinderella
crop of the Saskatchewan southwest.
Chickpeas, which have become a strong cash earner for local growers in
recent years, will probably grow on less than half of last year’s
acreage, said Kirk.
There are two reasons for this: big disease worries for chickpeas; and
good prices for mustard.
“We will see a resurgence of the word mustard in our area because of
the contract prices,” said Kirk.
“It’ll be a foray back into that crop, which we haven’t seen for a
couple of years.”
Oriental and brown mustard offer close and potentially better returns
than chickpeas, Kirk said.
Low-end returns for mustard are about $113 per acre after inputs are
deducted, versus about $100 for kabuli chickpeas.
A high-yielding crop of kabulis will return a tidy sum, but many
growers are worried about disease that ravaged crops last summer.
“It was devastating,” said Kirk. “Lots of guys sprayed four times.”
With each spraying costing about $23 per acre, disease can’t be taken
lightly.
Adequate winter snowfall provided fair soil moisture in the Climax
area, but seeding mustard is still worrisome because a stiff breeze
could dry the soil leaving poor germination conditions.
“That’s the chance these guys are taking,” said Kirk.
Chickpea acreage in his area should drop from about 83,000 acres last
summer to 30,000 or 40,000 this summer.
Kirk said lentil acres will probably fall drastically because of the
forecast for high grasshopper numbers.
“If they do come in the high numbers they are predicting, they are a
devastating insect on lentil production. You almost can’t win against
them.”
Kirk said it’s a toss-up in his area between growing durum and hard red
spring wheat, with other wheat classes not nearly as popular.
Oats don’t grow well around Climax, so few farmers will try to
capitalize on the attractive milling oats prices being offered.
Very few field peas will be grown, though Kirk thinks more producers
should consider them since they are good in a dry year.
But the traditional reaction to worries about drought will probably
mean most farmers turn to their old faithful.
“We all heard our grandfathers say that if you don’t grow hard red
spring wheat in a dry year, you’ll go broke,” said Kirk with a laugh.
Doug Horte – Kingman Marketing Club, Camrose, Alta.
Farmers north of Camrose are looking at lots of options and choosing a
bit of everything.
“There’s nothing looking like it’s going to pull away from the pack,”
said Horte.
“Everyone’s hedging their bets as much as they can.”
Horte said most years see some crop jump in acreage in response to
positive market signals. But for the local mainstay crops, farmers
haven’t picked a favourite.
From the 15 farmers he’s spoken to, most acres will be equally split
among wheat, barley and canola with six percent of land going to other
crops, such as peas and oats.
In years of good canola prices, acreage can jump by more than a third,
Horte said.
“I think it’s a sign that nothing looks stellar. Everyone’s pretty
ho-hum.”
The corn pouring into southern Alberta from the United States has
dimmed hopes of a good market for feed barley, so local producers will
probably concentrate on malting barley, which in recent years has
become a local success story.
East of the Kingman area there are serious moisture concerns, and much
of Alberta fears drought. But the Kingman area is still OK, though it
can’t survive without some rain.
“We’ll be at a deficit level if we don’t get some spring moisture and
seasonal rain through the summer,” Horte said.
Last summer rainfall was low, but came at the right times. If timely
rains come this summer, the area’s reputation as a sure-crop zone will
continue.
“This is a really stable area. We don’t have crop failures,” said Horte.
But local growers will be anxious until they see the first good
rainfalls.
“We’re certainly starting out a lot drier than what’s historically
normal.”
Ray Bauml – Marysburg Organic Producers, Humboldt, Sask.
Markets aren’t a big worry for organic growers in the Humboldt area,
said Bauml.
Good markets exist in Europe for most of what they can grow, so the
main concern is moisture.
“We’ll be seeding everything we normally do,” said Bauml.
That means hard red spring wheat, oats and barley as the main crops,
with CPS wheat, hulless barley, flax and two-row malt barley filling
out the acreage.
Prices for organic hard red spring wheat look good for this year and
next, oats always look good and barley will be in demand, he said.
Durum is seldom grown because the area is too far north to ensure
quality.
Flax can be a worry to seed because the organic market can be easily
flooded with product, but with wheat and oats drawing acreage this
year, flax acres shouldn’t be too big, said Bauml.
Because it was generally dry in his area, Bauml didn’t seed winter
wheat or fall rye last autumn.
But he did seed both on the land he farms farther northeast at Nipawin,
where there is better moisture.
Bauml said when his farm started in the organic business in 1990, there
were probably only 200 organic growers in Saskatchewan. Now there are
more than 1,000.
The market still isn’t flooded with organic grain, so that makes
Bauml’s spring crop selection easier.
Most crops he can grow can still find good markets with good prices.
“There’s more demand for it,” said Bauml. “More consumers are looking
for it.”
