Remember those photos from China two years ago that showed soldiers with pans of water watering wheat fields?
We will see them again in the next few weeks.
Like in 2009, little rain has fallen in the North China Plain, the area where most of the country’s winter wheat is grown. The winter wheat crop accounts for almost all of China’s wheat production.
There was good rain in August and September, but almost none since Oct. 1. It is now drier than it was in 2009.
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That sounds dire, but the average rainfall for October through mid-January is only 60 millimetres. It is always dry this time of year. This year it’s just drier than normal.
The critical time will come in late February and early March when temperatures rise and the crop comes out of dormancy.
In February 2009 there was a huge public effort involving farmers, soldiers, firefighters and students to water crops with hoses, spray cans and pans. Spring rain then arrived and revived the crop.
Chinese farmers harvested more than 112 million tonnes, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture figures, up from 109 million the previous year.
A recent USDA report, which can be found at www.pecad.fas.usda.gov,
notes that there is almost no snow cover this year to protect the crop. It would be vulnerable to freeze damage if temperatures dropped to -17 C.
The forecast this week was for below normal temperatures but not cold enough to do damage.
Chinese premier Wen Jiabao visited the drought area on the weekend and exhorted local authorities to do whatever they could to ensure the wheat crop makes it through to harvest.
The national government increased its farm spending by 14 percent to $15 billion to help farmers hurt by drought and encourage greater food production.
Most years, spring brings rain in the North China Plain and it probably will this year. But La Nina is also at play in China and could lessen spring precipitation.
China bought 150,000 tonnes of Australian wheat last week, but it was feed grade and seen as a substitute for high priced corn.
Even if drought limits wheat production in China, the country might not rush to the world market for supply because good crops in recent years allowed the government to increase its wheat reserves.
The USDA pegged China’s stocks at the start of this year at 60 million tonnes, up from 54 million the previous year and 34 million in 2005.
With such a cushion, Beijing is unlikely to import wheat in amounts that would cause prices, already at 2 year highs, to soar further.
