Durum prices could receive a lift if dry conditions persist in North Africa, says an analyst.
There was little rain in large portions of the region between October and December.
“Morocco has some serious problems,” said Drew Lerner, president of World Weather Inc.
“They just have had a deplorable precipitation year.”
It has also been dry in northwestern Algeria but northeastern Algeria and northern Tunisia are in better shape.
Bruce Burnett, weather and crop specialist with G3 Canada, said the dry conditions have not damaged the crop yet because it is in its slow growth period.
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“The concern is that we’re in the period of time they should be making up a lot of their reserve moisture,” he said.
The crop will need those reserves when temperatures rise in March.
He estimates there is a 100 to 150 millimetre soil moisture reserve deficit throughout North Africa’s durum growing region.
No rain in February would put the crop in jeopardy in March. Lerner sees no big rain in the forecast for at least the next couple of weeks.
Burnett said Morocco is the first country to heat up, and it is in the most need of moisture.
North Africa is the world’s second largest durum producing region behind only the European Union.
Any shortfall would require imports from the EU, Canada, the United States and Mexico, which would be a welcome development for Canadian durum growers.
“Without some very strong demand pull, I don’t think there’s going to be much excitement in the market,” said Burnett.
Durum prices are at a premium to spring wheat, but the premium narrowed last fall because of ample supply of quality Canadian durum.
EU acreage is up 13 percent from the previous year. Growing conditions are generally favourable but Spain is dry.
Desert durum crops from the U.S. and Mexico will be hitting the market in April and May. Seeding is down 34 percent in Arizona and 31 percent in California from last year’s levels but higher than what they were in 2014.
