There’s a lot riding on the size of this year’s canola crop, but no one has a good handle on how much is likely to be harvested.
Analysts are grappling with disastrous conditions in much of Manitoba, wondrous conditions in much of the western Prairies, and mixed conditions in other places.
“I don’t know, I really don’t know,” said Errol Anderson, a Calgary broker and risk management specialist, when asked about the likely yield and size of the prairie crop.
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“It goes from dreadful to stellar.”
Anderson is slightly pessimistic about the state of the crop, but CanolaInsight analyst Don Roberts is generally optimistic.
“I think we’re gearing up for a good, high-oil yielding crop,” said Roberts.
The prairie crop has been buffeted by wildly varying conditions since spring, leading to extreme variability.
Areas that are excellent or terrible are easier to assess than those with mixed conditions, where late seeding and saturated soil didn’t prevent the crop from being planted but have made its condition a mystery.
“Everybody’s story from every little corner is different,” said canola agronomy specialist Jim Bessel of the Canola Council of Canada.
“With all the moisture we’ve had, there’s certainly going to be some variance with development. Extra moisture has its issues, just like drought does.”
In areas where soil has been wet for a long time, humidity leads to increased crop disease pressure.
Canola needs more care and attention than most crops, so being unable to spray for bugs or disease is a big issue.
As well, analysts are still trying to figure out exactly how many acres were seeded, and when.
The seeding date determines the risk of frost damage and the chance that bad fall weather will downgrade the crop.
“On the whole, things are moving along fairly well,” said Bessel.
“We certainly are going to ask Mother Nature to give us time.”
Roberts, who expects a good crop, said the risk of frost and bad weather is the wildest card in the present deck.
“It all goes in the toilet if we get an early frost,” he said.
“We’re behind normal, but if you look at the good to excellent category (of reported crop conditions), we’re at average.”
Roberts estimates a crop of 13.7 million tonnes but admits it’s a loose estimate.
