MONHEIM, Germany – Even when European regulators finally pave the way for imports of genetically modified crops, it will be years before any measurable consumer demand emerges, says the head of one of the world’s largest biotechnology companies.
“I personally do not think GMOs will be accepted in Europe in the next few years,” Friedrich Berschauer, chair of Bayer CropScience, told reporters attending an international press conference.
Biotechnology companies have had a difficult time convincing European consumers they should accept herbicide tolerant plants because they see no tangible personal benefit in a technology designed to improve crop agronomics.
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“This is a very important hurdle as far as acceptance is concerned,” said Berschauer.
But he thinks the industry may have found a message that will resonate with consumers: that GM crops are the only feasible answer to the looming food crisis.
A forecast prepared by the United Nations shows that by 2050 world population will reach 9.2 billion people, up from 6.1 billion in 2000. Over that period, the amount of agricultural land under cultivation is expected to remain static at 3.7 billion acres.
That means there will be 0.4 acres of farmland per person in 2050, down from 0.6 acres in 2000 and 1.3 acres in 1950.
Meanwhile, per capita calorie consumption is rising in developing and emerging countries, fueling a greater demand for animal protein, which means more crops grown for feed.
The emerging biofuel sector has also created a significant new source of demand for grains and oilseeds. Biofuel production is expected to reach 95 billion litres in 2015, up from 40 billion litres in 2005.
Between the food, feed and fuel markets, consumption of wheat, corn and rice is already exceeding annual production, causing a steep decline in global inventories of those crops.
In the 1980s, the global wheat stockpile was sufficient for more than 130 days. Today, the figure is just 67 days, a 25-year low.
“This means that there is enough wheat available in the world for around two months. Any major loss of harvest, any delay in harvesting important crops in the coming season because of adverse weather, could thus precipitate an alarming supply crisis,” warned Berschauer.
To mitigate that risk, the world must embrace GM crops, which can deliver higher yields through the use of targeted crop protection products and by making farming possible in marginal areas, he said.
Terry Pugh, executive secretary of the National Farmers Union in Canada, doesn’t buy that argument. It’s the same one that was pitched during the green revolution that drove production higher, but also increased input and environmental costs.
He is particularly concerned what impact the increased uptake of GM crops will have on impoverished farmers throughout the world, who are being asked to forego public seed varieties in exchange for ones that have royalties attached.
Pugh said farmers in India have been “sucked into” the notion that GM cotton delivers higher returns but they forget about the royalty fees.
“You find people just basically falling into a spiral of debt.”
But Berschauer contends without modern crop protection products, including GM crops, global agricultural production would not achieve even half the yields that are possible today.
Bayer plans to increase its annual research and development budget to $1.08 billion by 2015, from $864 million in 2005, with almost all of the budget increase earmarked to develop new high-yielding GM crops.
The company is working on 40 biotechnology projects, including three new GM crops that will be commercialized in 2009-10 and another 11 cotton, canola, soybean and rice crops that should be ready for launch between 2010 and 2015.
Berschauer doesn’t know if the EU market will be ready for those crops by that time, but progress is being made.
“I’m quite confident the population can be convinced that it actually makes sense. Therefore, I think that in the long-run this technology will become established in Europe,” he said.
