It is too early to be concerned about less than ideal seeding conditions in the world’s second largest corn producer, says a leading industry analyst.
A report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service said weather conditions in China could significantly affect yields in 2013-14.
The combination of drought in some corn growing regions and excessively wet and cool conditions in others has one Chinese forecaster predicting 10 million tonnes of corn imports in 2013-14, up substantially from an estimated three million tonnes this crop year.
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Model-based estimates used by Statistics Canada showed the 2025/26 crop year has seen increases in canola, corn for grain, oats and lentils production while seeing dips in spring wheat, durum wheat, soybeans and barley in comparison to 2024/25.
A seven million tonne increase in Chinese imports would significantly affect prices of corn and other grain and oilseeds.
However, Jerry Norton, grains analyst for the USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist, said that is jumping the gun.
“It’s too early to assume there is any weather impact going to reduce (China’s) availability of corn,” he said.
The bulk of China’s corn is grown in the country’s northeast.
The USDA report said planting in that region could be hindered by an unusually wet and cool spring, similar to what’s happening in Western Canada.
Corn is typically planted during the first half of May in the northeast, but the timing of the seeding is not nearly as critical as it is in the United States, where growers want to get the crop planted and pollinated before the summer heat arrives. It doesn’t get as hot in northeastern China.
“I’m not at this point concerned that planting delays would have a significant effect on the crop yet,” said Norton.
Another important growing region is in the North China Plain south of Beijing. The USDA report indicated a moderate to severe drought has developed in the western portion of that region in western Henan, Shanxi and Shaanxi’s Guanzhong Plain.
However, growers won’t plant corn in that region until mid-June, following the winter wheat harvest, so it is too early to be concerned about the crop being planted into dry conditions.
The other area of concern is southwestern China, where there is severe drought in the provinces of Sichuan, Guizhou and Yunnan, which affects 1.8 million acres of cropland.
Norton said the dryness in that region is a little worrisome, but it’s not a big corn producing region.
He is most concerned about the late planting in the northeast.
“It’s a little too early to think we’re going to have significant adverse impacts, but if this continues three to four weeks, then that’s a much different story,” he said.
Norton said 10 million tonnes of corn imports are possible, but it is “a very big number” and would require imports to exceed China’s tariff rate quota of 7.2 million tonnes.
That would happen only if the government decided to rebuild its stocks of the crop. That decision would likely be based more on the world price of the commodity than on the size of China’s crop, although that too can influence buying patterns.
“If weather problems from here on become adverse, they’ll certainly probably buy corn, but it’s kind of early to think that’s happening just yet,” he said.
