Pencils are being sharpened down to nubs and erasers rubbed down to nothing as analysts try to predict the size of the canola crop.
“It’s going to be really, really tough to peg this thing,” said Jon Driedger of FarmLink Marketing Solutions, whose firm estimates a 9.7 million tonne crop.
“We’ll probably be revising ours higher.”
Analysts have a wide range of estimates from nine to 11 million tonnes, with most falling in the 10 to 10.5 million tonne range.
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Statistics Canada’s production estimate is set for release Aug. 20.
Agri-Trend forecasts a 10.5 million tonne crop, but said it is hard to estimate yield potential in thousands of fields that were saturated.
“Everybody knew that acres (couldn’t be seeded), but the low-lying acres are the question,” said Agri-Trend marketing manager Derek Squair.
“We’re seeing crops range from 10 bushels per acre to 60 bu. per acre.”
The biggest challenge for analysts is canola’s robust ability to recover from stress. Many crop types have their yield potential crippled by early season stress like the excessive moisture that caused damage in many Saskatchewan fields, but canola can recover.
“To come back as much as it has has been pretty impressive,” said Squair.
Reports are flooding in of canola crops rebounding, especially across Manitoba. Canola Council of Canada crop production manager Denise Maurice said canola crops that survived short saturation have roared back to life in good weather.
“Canola is one of the most resilient crops,” said Maurice. “It finds ways to compensate. It branches out. It wants to fill whatever void is there.”
Manitoba farmers report that crops that had prematurely flowered and looked to have little yield potential went into a second growth stage and regained much potential.
Crops across most of Alberta also look good, Maurice said. The Peace River region is suffering drought, so crops there look poorer.
nd there are far fewer reports of crops recovering in Saskatchewan, which produces the largest amount of Canada’s crop.
Squair said a 10.5 million tonne crop should come close to matching the market’s underlying 11 million tonne demand, especially since the recent nearly $100 per tonne rally in canola will ration marginal demand.
As long as no major problem pops up before harvest, the new crop and carry-in stocks should keep prices firm but leave enough for users to buy.
Some are now beginning to worry about frost, because the recovery has also extended canola’s time to maturity.
“It can come back but it takes time and we need until Sept. 15 frost-free to get all those acres in,” said Squair.
Maurice said farmers across the Prairies are going to have to fight diamondback moths, which are showing up everywhere.
