The canola harvest is underway in parts of the Prairies and while analysts are struggling with acreage and yield estimates, it is shaping up to be the smallest crop in years.
Cornie Thiessen, Dekalb business manager for Western Canada, said the crop is a mixed bag this year with more acres in the below average yield category than above.
Below average crops in the Peace region, southern Alberta and northeastern Saskatchewan will be partially offset by above average crops in central Alberta, northwestern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba.
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He wouldn’t be surprised if the average bushels per acre yield returned to the high 20s this year, down from the mid 30s of the last two years.
That would drive down Agriculture Canada’s July 8 production estimate of a 10.5 million tonne crop, assuming harvested acreage remains at 14.8 million acres, which Thiessen believes is a reasonable estimate.
The agency used a long-term trend yield of 31 bu. per acre to arrive at its 10.5 million tonne estimate. Substituting 28 bu. per acre would result in a 9.4 million tonne crop.
Rod Merryweather, North American director of seeds and traits for Bayer, is also forecasting a lower production number.
He estimated 13.4 million acres will be harvested out of 15 million seeded acres.
Ideal growing conditions in Alberta and western Saskatchewan will boost average yields to 33 bu. per acre, resulting in 10 million tonnes of canola.
“That’s not a very big crop,” he said.
But Merryweather believes there was more carry-in than the 1.3 million tonnes Agriculture Canada used. He thinks there is about one million tonnes in the grain handling system and another 400,000 to 500,000 tonnes on the farm.
Grant McLean, cropping management specialist with Saskatchewan Agriculture, said yields vary from field to field in Saskatchewan.
“Potentially we have at least an average crop and I think in many cases an above average crop,” he said.
The average yield for the 1990 to 2008 period was 26 bu. per acre in Saskatchewan.
The question is whether a crop that is anywhere from 10 days to three weeks later than usual will escape significant frost damage.
“I just talked to a producer (Aug. 6) from Fort Qu’Appelle. He’s got a lovely canola crop that is chest height but it’s in full bloom, which means it’s three weeks behind,” said McLean.
Manyquestionsaboutthe2010canola crop will be answered when Statistics Canada issues its first production estimate of the year on Aug. 20.
