Canadian pulse growers can expect a lot more business from their top customer if demand forecasts pan out.
The Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations predicts 29 million tonnes of Indian pulse demand by 2021, up from today’s levels of about 17.5 million tonnes.
If the forecast bears out, Indian consumers would be eating twice as many pulses than their farmers now produce.
“A crisis in pulses is in the making,” said commodity analyst Tejinder Narang in The Hindu Business Line, an Indian newspaper.
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India has been trying to boost pulse production for years to no avail. Unless there are breakthroughs that make pulses more attractive to grow relative to other crops, production will remain static, said Carl Potts, director of market development with Pulse Canada.
That means the country would have to rely on imports to fill the growing gap between consumption and production.
“India represents a huge opportunity for the Canadian pulse industry,” said Potts.
Saskatchewan Pulse Growers is also optimistic about the prospect for Canadian pulse exports, not only to India but around the world.
SPG executive director Garth Patterson projects Saskatchewan could export seven million tonnes of pulses at a value of $4 billion by 2030, up from an estimated 3.5 million tonnes in 2009-10.
But Potts is skeptical that India’s import needs would bulk up to 15 million tonnes per year from today’s levels of three to four million tonnes, even considering the country’s rapidly expanding population base.
“The question in my mind is whether current per capita consumption rates can be sustained.”
Unless production keeps pace with demand, pulse prices are going to rise and that could cause consumers to switch to cheaper sources of calories.
Food price inflation is already a major political issue in India, where many people struggle with poverty.
“They may not be able to afford the protein they actually need,” said Potts. “That could probably temper the overall demand.”
But he thinks the situation still looks promising for Canadian pulse growers. In addition to improved sales prospects for whole pulses, he expects growing demand for products like pulse flour used as an ingredient to make other foods. That ingredient market caters to consumers who are less price-sensitive than those buying whole pulses.
