Canadian beef is moving south into the United States again, but U.S. beef and cattle prices haven’t slumped.
They’re still at record high levels, said University of Missouri agricultural economist Ron Plain, because less Canadian beef is going south than expected.
“The logical forecast is for lower prices, but we’re still doing better than expected,” said Plain.
“I’m surprised more Canadian beef isn’t flowing south. I thought there’d be a lot backed up in a backlog, and I think the market thought so too.
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“We’ve been trending up, despite the reopening of the border to boneless beef.”
The partial reopening of the U.S. border, which was closed to Canadian beef following the May 20 announcement of an Alberta case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy, has not made up for the cut in Canadian imports nor for the expansion of U.S. export sales caused by the BSE situation in Canada.
American cattle feeders have been pushing animals through the system to catch the high prices, and that means the pipeline is beginning to run low.
“We’ve pulled way ahead on slaughter in order to fill in for that Canadian cattle absence and that’s resulted in reduced slaughter weights and depleted our stocks in the feedyards,” said Plain.
“It’s a very tight supply that’s going to stay incredibly tight unless we can get more beef coming south from Canada.”
Plain thinks a phased-in readmission of live cattle starting in January could pressure prices, but since cull cows and their meat are unlikely to be readmitted soon, the supply constriction will persist and give strength to prices.
Janet Honey of Manitoba Agriculture said speculation that live cattle may be readmitted to the U.S. within a few months is probably helping auction prices.
Prices are lower than before May 20, but stronger than many expected.
“Anybody that’s got good quality animals that’s able to sell them now is getting a relatively good price,” said Honey.
