PHOENIX, Ariz. — It’s too soon to be writing off the Black Sea wheat crop, says U.S. Wheat Associates.
A story published in agrimoney.com last week said the European Commission’s crop monitoring unit had found the winter grain crops in northeastern Ukraine and southern Russia to be suffering significant winterkill.
Russia’s farm ministry has indicated the country’s winter cereal production could fall more than 40 percent to 28 million tonnes from 48 million tonnes last year if the crops grown on the 8.9 million acres that are rated in bad condition are lost.
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Ukraine’s agriculture ministry said in a recent Reuters story that winterkill could take 13 percent of the grain crop, up from the average of 10 percent.
USW president Alan Tracy thinks the estimates are speculative at this point.
The true condition of the winter wheat crops won’t be known until they break dormancy, just like in the U.S. Plains or Canada’s southern Prairies.
He said there has undoubtedly been damage in the Black Sea region caused by a dry fall, weak emergence, poor stands and an early winter cold snap.
“There’s a risk, but wheat is pretty resilient,” he said.
“People kill off the Oklahoma crop multiple times in the press every year, and they still end up producing some wheat. Let’s just wait and see on Russia.”
Tracy is taking the same patient approach with the U.S. winter wheat crop, which experienced some dryness in the southern Plains followed by a severe winter.
sean.pratt@producer.com
