Analysts and the market expect U.S. farmers to moderately increase soybean plantings and slightly decrease corn.
But no one should assume American farmers are going to be moderate when seeding rigs hit the fields, said analyst Mike Krueger of Fargo, North Dakota.
U.S. producers have shown they are willing to make huge shifts at the last moment, stunning the world and the markets.
If they crowd into soybeans this spring, that could force oilseed prices lower and support cereals.
“American producers, even in the corn and bean belt, have an ability like you do up here to make enormous shifts in what they plant, enormous shifts,” said Krueger, publisher of the Money Farm newsletter, speaking at the Manitoba Special Crops Symposium.
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That’s got people around the world watching U.S. seeding intentions, but Krueger said no one will know for sure until farmers are filling the hoppers on their seeders.
“This acreage game has attracted more attention than ever before. They want to know what we think you people are going to plant,” said Krueger.
“They know how much it can affect the market for (soy)beans.”
The recent wild swings in U.S. acreage have rattled the notion that farmers stick to a predictable soy-corn rotation. Two years ago corn acres shot up by 14 million, then fell back by almost eight million last year. Soybean acres have been the flip side of that shift.
This year soybeans look like the crop with the best return per acre based on curent new-crop prices, Krueger said. Corn isn’t far behind, but for spring wheat to equal a new-crop soybean cash price of $9 per bushel, wheat would have to reach $7.41. It’s about $1.50 below that now.
Combined with the wet soils in the hard red spring wheat area, the relatively low wheat price should cut acreage and could send more land into soybeans. Krueger expects a five to 10 percent cut in U.S. spring wheat acres.
Because of these factors, Krueger is bearish on new-crop oilseeds and bullish for corn, wheat and feed grain.
The market now expects three to four million more acres of soybeans and three to four million fewer corn acres, but that assessment doesn’t include the recent proclivity of U.S. farmers to swing acres at the last moment, so there could be big surprises this spring.
