Special crops analysts find the forecast for a near-record lentil crop easier to swallow than choking down estimates for record pea plantings.
Statistics Canada has forecasted 1.97 million acres of lentils will be planted based on responses to a survey of 14,500 farmers in late March. That is in line with the trade’s predictions since January.
“The lentil number is reasonable,” said Garth Patterson, executive director of Saskatchewan Pulse Growers.
While it would be just shy of the record 1.98 million acres grown in 2005-06, Patterson said there is reason for market optimism because it looks like Canada could be the only country with exportable quantities of red lentils this year.
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Analysts expect Turkey to harvest less than half of a normal crop. Wild Oats Grain Market Advisory said India’s red lentil crop is “distinctly sub-par” and that the country will need to import 40,000 tonnes of lentils. The Australian red lentil harvest in late 2008 was a disaster.
“The prices are telling us what the trade thinks and red prices have stayed strong,” said Patterson.
He thinks 1.97 million acres might be low because the survey was conducted a month ago. Prices have since risen and farmers could have changed their minds.
“I would be worried if we started getting up to 2.3 or 2.5 million acres of lentils,” said Patterson.
He is also concerned that a lot of Saskatchewan’s lentil growing region is dry.
“We don’t have stored soil moisture this year in the west and southwest, so that’s a big risk,” he said.
Dale Risula, special crops specialist with Saskatchewan Agriculture, is not so concerned about moisture.
While there are pockets of the province that could need rain, the high lentil production areas are in the clay soils of the dark brown and brown soil zones.
“It doesn’t take a whole lot of moisture to replenish those soils and almost have yourself a guaranteed crop,” he said.
The slow spring melt allowed a lot of snow to soak into the ground.
“It doesn’t necessarily look like there is tonnes of water out there but I think the moisture soaked into the soil so it’s locked into place and ready to be utilized,” said Risula.
He thinks a lot of farmers in southern Saskatchewan will plant lentils instead of peas because the prices are more attractive.
John Bennett, a grower from Biggar, Sask., said 26 to 27 cent new crop lentil prices are disappointing when old crop reds are listed at 41 cents.
“We have a spot price right now that’s quite extraordinary. It’s a little difficult to concede that the value of (new crop) lentils is half what the spot price is,” he said.
