Vaccine clinics are operating across Canada, millions of Americans have already been vaccinated and people around the northern hemisphere are bracing for the oncoming influenza season.
That leaves the Canadian hog industry anxiously watching consumers in North America and overseas for signs that they will again mistakenly avoid pork in the assumption that it could transmit H1N1 flu.
Experts say consumers appear to know pork doesn’t carry the disease.
“People in Canada seem to be realistic and pragmatic,” said Canadian Pork Council executive director Martin Rice.
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“Most Canadians know there’s no connection.”
John Lawrence of Iowa State University said it’s a common outlook across the continent.
“North American consumers seem to understand that there is not a link between consuming pork and H1N1.”
Even a recent case of pigs becoming infected during a major livestock show didn’t rattle consumers.
“The markets were stable after finding infected pigs at the Minnesota State Fair,” Lawrence said.
“The swine flu is in the media more than ever now that it is spreading and the vaccine is available, but we have put $10 on the hog futures since mid-August.”
Rice said overseas reaction, particularly in lucrative Asian markets, is more of a question.
When the meat industry surveyed overseas customers, “they’re still seeing a significant problem … with people thinking that pork is a source of H1N1,” he said.
“That’s a problem for us because it means less pork going out.”
Many people believe North American consumer demand collapsed last spring when H1N1 erupted, but analysts say domestic demand fell only slightly. The market catastrophe occurred when China and Russia shut their markets, backing up millions of tonnes of pork into storage and crashing the packer demand for slaughter hogs.
China and Russia have ended their national H1N1 bans on Canadian and U.S. pork, but Rice said they still are using other obstacles to slow or stop pork imports.
Russia has banned pork from plants in provinces that have had cases of pigs sick with H1N1, which includes pork heavyweights Alberta, Manitoba and Quebec, while China is blocking pork produced with Paylean and other production additives.
“H1N1 is a pretty negligible factor in terms of the entry of pork into those markets,” Rice said.
Lawrence said H1N1 may not be the reason China has made trade difficult, but the continuation of trade snarls shows how pork trade gets caught up with national trading relationships and protectionism.
“China appears to be using an abundance of caution regarding H1N1, but they also appear to be protecting domestic producers who are dealing with low margins because of low hog to feed price relationships,” Lawrence said.
