Most producers are having a hard time seeing a profitable future in hog farming right now.
“We’re going through some pretty tough times here,” Manitoba Pork Council chair Karl Kynoch said at the beginning of the organization’s annual meeting.
Country-of-origin labelling, high feed grain prices, slumping demand and a provincial government policy make survival challenging, with few signs that the problems will soon go away.
But two experts told Manitoba hog producers that they see a bright, profitable and fulfilling future for farmers, but only on the other side of the present calamitous situation.
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“How do we get to there from here? How do we overcome this period of fear? I don’t know the best way to get there, other than to get there,” said U.S. hog market expert Steve Meyer.
Canadian hog industry consultant Ted Bilyea, a former Maple Leaf Foods executive, said farmers shouldn’t give up hope because all the long-term trends make the Canadian Prairies appear to be ideal for hog production.
“You can’t help but be hit with the fact that this is the place to produce hogs,” Bilyea said.
“The rest of the world demand for that, once we get through this patch, is going to continue to grow.”
Bilyea sketched a picture of the world pork industry that showed an Asian grain and meat farm economy in imminent danger of collapse. As cities in China have boomed, so too has arable land been destroyed and water sources depleted.
China has subsidized grain production in recent years, but that hasn’t been enough to help production keep up with demand growth. Production will likely fall soon, he said.
Livestock production will be severely cramped by water depletion, which is occurring quickly. Factories set up just 10 years ago are being disassembled and moved because local water supplies have run out.
Bilyea described the Chinese water situation as one of “peak water.”
“They have nowhere to go and they’re about to crash on this.”
Loss of arable land, depletion of water sources and increasing demand for meat around the world means production on the Prairies will be important, Bilyea said.
However, producers should embrace the opportunities that the future will offer and not try to fight new environmental and sustainability demands.
“Pick something you want to move towards,” he said.
“I’d like to see you go from being thought of as a polluter to being a poster boy for the green revolution. Think of the pig in its natural processes as a recycling vehicle for the grains that people can’t eat.”
Bilyea also said farmers should be happy that one sector of the hog industry is doing well in the short term.
COOL has kept many Canadian pigs within Canada rather than being sent to the U.S, which has allowed Canadian packing plants to run at full capacity. That is essential to long-term industry demand.
“COOL is not all that bad,” Bilyea said about this unintended effect of the American law.
“Yes, it’s hurting in the short term. But if you believe you can have a viable industry where you do not have plants that are running full out and producing things that are fundamentally different, then you do not deserve to be successful. This industry has to work for both pieces.”
