The Good: U.S. wheat exports improved last week as 350,293 tonnes were shipped during the week ending on October 30.. This brought the total exports to date to 11.83 million tonnes. This is the fastest pace of wheat exports since the 2013-14 marketing year. The fast pace for wheat demand is being led by HRS and HRW wheat which accounted for 100,989 and 99,982 tonnes, respectively of the weekly exports. This indicates that wheat demand is still strong for bread wheat in Asia and Latin America. At the same time wheat exports from Canada are continuing at a record pace with a total of 5.12 million tonnes shipped by October 24, 2025. This is 12 weeks into the Canadian wheat crop year and exports are running 630,400 tonnes ahead of last year. The good news is that Canadian exports remain at a record pace. Wheat demand remains strong!
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The Bad: The December spring wheat contract closed down by two cents per bushel and closed at US$5.57 per bushel during the session. The drop in the spring wheat contract was bad news as it confirms the sideways trend in the market. The bad news is that winter wheat futures were up by six to seven cents per bushel. This dropped the spread between Minneapolis and Kansas City December contracts to a low of 21 cents per bushel. The normal spread between the two contracts is normally in the 30 to 35 cent per bushel range. Spring wheat futures are becoming undervalues when compered with HRW contracts.
The Ugly: The canola January contract closed down by C$6.70 per tonne to settle at C$640.10 per tonne. The ugly news is that the losses today clawed back most of the gains posted yesterday. The drop in the canola contract confirmed the sideways movement of the contract that is currently ranging from the C$640 to C650 per bushel range. The drop in the nearby canola contract was pressured by soybean futures which dropped by 12 cents per bushel. Soybean oil futures also pressured canola with nearby futures closing below the 50 cent per pound level at 49.89 cents per pound. The reason for the drop in the oilseed complex today was mostly due to a lack of confirmation of any soybean sales to China. The ugly reality is that confirmation of sales to China will be few and far between in the coming weeks.
