The Good: The canola market had a good day today with the nearby contract up C$10.90 per tonne to settle at C$647.90 per tonne. The canola market was supported by a strong move higher in U.S. soybean futures which closed up 17 to 19 cents per bushel. Soybean oil futures increased by 2.3 to 2.4 per cent to close just under 50 U.S. cents per pound. The rally in canola futures pushed above the 50 day moving average that stands at C$637.48 per tonne. This opens up the canola market for a rally this week through the resistance levels that lie close to the C$650 per tonne level.
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The Bad: Spring wheat futures closed up by six cents per bushel to settle at US$5.59 per tonne. Winter wheat futures increased by 10 cents per bushel in Kansas City and Chicago which supported winter wheat futures. The bad news is that despite the gains in Minneapolis the contract settled below the 50 day moving average which lies at US$ 5.64 per bushel. Spring wheat continues in a trading range between US$5.50 and US$5.60 per bushel. That is bad news for wheat prices in the coming weeks.
The Ugly: The U.S. announced that China had agreed to purchase 12 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans this year and 25 million tonnes in 2026 and 2027. This is good news for the soybean market which had been flagging due to the lack of demand from China. China has imported minimal amounts of soybeans so far this year. The total soybean exports this crop year to week 9 are 7.8 million tonnes which is the smallest since the 2011 crop year. The ugly news is that soybean exports are off to a very slow start and even if 12 million tonnes are sold to China in the coming months the export pace is going to the long term average.
