The Good: The USDA continues to rate the 2025 corn crop at near record levels during the past week. Ratings were unchanged during the past week with 74 per cent of the crop rated as good to excellent. This is the highest rated corn crop in over a decade. Normally conditions begin to decline at the end of July. The crop is rated at 86 per cent good to excellent in Iowa which is not only the largest producing state but also the highest rated state. Ratings in the second largest state are much more modest at “only” 70 per cent good to excellent. The high crop ratings point to record yield potential for most U.S. states. This is the reason that corn futures dropped by five to six cents per bushel in today’s trading action. Good news for the corn crop means bad news for prices.
The Bad: Canola futures dropped today with nearby November futures closing the day at C$694.10 per tonne. The bad news is that the contract closed below the 20 and 50 day moving averages. The two moving averages are within C$3.43 of crossing with the 20 and 50 day moving averages likely to cross within the next two trading sessions. The bad news is that canola futures have resumed their move lower and the crossing of the moving averages would be a sign that canola will be vulnerable to a sell-off.
The Ugly: The September spring wheat contract closed down by nine cents per bushel with the contract settling at US$5.87 per bushel. Spring wheat is under pressure as harvest is beginning in the extreme southern areas of the spring wheat belt. The ugly news is that spring wheat futures settled at new contract lows. Winter wheat futures followed Minneapolis lower with nearby contracts off by three to four cents in the Chicago and Kansas City markets. Another factor in today’s trade was a four to six cent per bushel loss in the corn market which pressured wheat. The ugly news is that corn fundamentals will push markets over the next month.
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