WRAP: Record U.S. crop forecast fails to drop crop futures

The USDA on Friday pushed its yield forecasts for corn and soybeans beyond the average of traders’ expectations but by the end of the day, the crop market was little changed.

Record yield forecasts initially hit prices hard, but then commercial and end user buying started to reel the prices back up.

Canola followed the movements in soybeans and when the dust settled the nearby contracts were narrowly mixed.

November closed at $461.40, down 90 cents and January closed at $467.30, up 10 cents.

For the week, November canola rose $11.60 or 2.6 percent.

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CANADA-CHINA TALKS

Talks between Canada and Chinese officials in Beijing this week have concluded without a solution to the dispute over China’s plan to tighten dockage rules in canola Sept. 1.

Discussions will continue between the two governments, and resolving the issue is a priority for Ottawa, Guy Gallant, spokesman for Canadian Agriculture Minister Lawrence MacAulay, told Reuters on Friday.

WEEKLY CRUSH

The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association said the crush since the start of the new crop to Aug. 10 was 202,928 tonnes, down from 233,958 tonnes in the same period last year.

The crush for the week was running at a slow 63.8 percent of capacity.

Unsettled weather Friday had thunderstorm advisories in effect in Saskatchewan, but mostly dry, warm weather was expected for the weekend and early next week.

USDA REPORT

The USDA estimated the corn crop at 15.153 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 175.1 bu. per acre. That topped analysts’ forecasts that ranged from 14.580 billion to 15.146 billion for production and 168.6 to 175 for yield.

The soybean harvest was seen at 4.060 billion bu., with yields expected to average 48.9 bu. per acre. Analysts’ soybean estimates ranged from 3.865 billion to 4.054 billion for production and 46.7 to 48.8 for yield.

The USDA forecast year end domestic corn supply for 2016-17 will be 2.409 billion bushels, up from the July forecast of 2.081 billion and the 2015-16 ending stocks of 1.706 billion.

U.S. 2016-17 wheat ending stocks were pegged at 1.1 billion bu., virtually unchanged from the July report but up from 0.981 billion at the end of 2015-16.

Soybean 2016-17 ending stocks were pegged at 330 million bu., up from 290 million in July and last year’s 255 million.

WHEAT

The USDA increased its outlook for global wheat production to 743.44 million tonnes.

It slashed the EU to 147.5 million tonnes, down nine million tonnes because of the problems in France.

However, that was more than made up for by a total 11 million tonnes increase in production in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

It raised Canada wheat production forecast one million tonnes to 30 million and also raised Australia by one million to 26.5 million. The U.S. climbed 1.63 million to 63.16 million.

The year-end global wheat stocks however dropped due to an increase in consumption.

It pegged 2016-17 ending stocks at 252.82 million tonnes, down slightly from 253.7 million in the July report. However, that was still more than the 2015-16 ending stocks at 241.88 million tonnes.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose $1 to US$44.49 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US77.25 cents, up from 76.88 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2945.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 48.61 points, or 0.33 percent, at 14,747.45.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 37.12 points, or 0.2 percent, to 18,576.4, the S&P 500 lost 1.74 points, or 0.08 percent, to 2,184.05 and the Nasdaq Composite added 4.50 points, or 0.09 percent, to 5,232.90

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2016 461.40 -0.90 -0.19%

Canola Jan 2017 467.30 +0.10 +0.02%

Canola Mar 2017 473.40 +0.50 +0.11%

Canola May 2017 478.40 +0.90 +0.19%

Canola Jul 2017 482.00 +0.50 +0.10%

Milling Wheat Oct 2016 212.00 +2.00 +0.95%

Milling Wheat Dec 2016 216.00 +2.00 +0.93%

Milling Wheat Mar 2017 221.00 +2.00 +0.91%

Durum Wheat Oct 2016 261.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2016 264.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2017 268.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2016 138.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Dec 2016 138.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Mar 2017 140.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Aug 2016 1003.25 -19.00 -1.86%

Soybeans Sep 2016 999.00 -2.75 -0.27%

Soybeans Nov 2016 981.75 -2.25 -0.23%

Soybeans Jan 2017 982.25 -1.25 -0.13%

Soybeans Mar 2017 976.50 +1.75 +0.18%

Soybeans May 2017 975.00 +1.25 +0.13%

Soybean Meal Aug 2016 332.90 -1.00 -0.30%

Soybean Meal Sep 2016 332.50 -1.40 -0.42%

Soybean Meal Oct 2016 330.00 -1.80 -0.54%

Soybean Oil Aug 2016 31.90 +0.19 +0.60%

Soybean Oil Sep 2016 32.03 +0.24 +0.75%

Soybean Oil Oct 2016 32.16 +0.23 +0.72%

Corn Sep 2016 322.25 +1.25 +0.39%

Corn Dec 2016 333.00 +1.25 +0.38%

Corn Mar 2017 343.50 +1.50 +0.44%

Corn May 2017 350.25 +1.25 +0.36%

Corn Jul 2017 357.00 +1.25 +0.35%

Oats Sep 2016 167.00 -2.00 -1.18%

Oats Dec 2016 181.25 -0.75 -0.41%

Oats Mar 2017 191.50 -0.25 -0.13%

Oats May 2017 195.75 unch 0.00%

Oats Jul 2017 202.00 -1.00 -0.49%

Wheat Sep 2016 422.50 +6.25 +1.50%

Wheat Dec 2016 440.00 +3.00 +0.69%

Wheat Mar 2017 462.00 +1.75 +0.38%

Wheat May 2017 475.00 +2.00 +0.42%

Wheat Jul 2017 482.00 +2.50 +0.52%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 2016 513.75 +10.25 +2.04%

Spring Wheat Dec 2016 516.00 +6.50 +1.28%

Spring Wheat Mar 2017 529.00 +6.00 +1.15%

Spring Wheat May 2017 537.75 +6.00 +1.13%

Spring Wheat Jul 2017 547.00 +5.50 +1.02%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016 416.25 +4.00 +0.97%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 442.25 +4.25 +0.97%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 458.00 +3.75 +0.83%

Hard Red Wheat May 2017 468.50 +3.50 +0.75%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 478.00 +4.00 +0.84%

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)

Live Cattle (P) Aug 2016 116.32 +0.29 +0.25%

Live Cattle (P) Oct 2016 114.53 -0.02 -0.02%

Live Cattle (P) Dec 2016 115.05 -0.25 -0.22%

Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2016 149.08 +0.36 +0.24%

Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2016 147.55 +0.58 +0.39%

Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2016 144.25 +0.20 +0.14%

Lean Hogs (P) Aug 2016 67.15 -0.05 -0.07%

Lean Hogs (P) Oct 2016 60.00 +1.58 +2.70%

Lean Hogs (P) Dec 2016 54.95 +0.60 +1.10%

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