Wild week expected in the markets

Get ready for twitchy trade this week, with a cornucopia of wild cards being played into the markets, says a crop futures trader.

“You’re running into a multitude of events that are making it hard to see beyond, see what truly is going on unless you really look,” said Lorne Boundy, an oat market specialist with Paterson Grain.

Oat trading Monday revealed the volatility possible in wacky weeks like this one, Boundy said, with a big move down in oat futures prices likely caused by the expiration of December oats options Friday.

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“It appears that someone got assigned on options that they didn’t expect to get assigned on Friday,” said Boundy after trading ended Monday.

“They ended up coming into the day long and the market was down.… It just spiraled out of control a little bit on them.”

Broker Ken Ball of P.I. Financial said the oat market has been surging higher in recent months as first notice days approach, so that many traders were probably positioned to take advantage of that phenomenon again.

However this time it’s gone the other way, at least temporarily, so some longs might have been forced out unexpectedly.

“There’s been a tendency for the futures to kick up,” said Ball.

Not only was Friday options expiry day and this coming Friday first notice day for December oat futures, but Thursday is American Thanksgiving and Friday a shortened trading day. That leaves potential pitfalls for wrong-sided traders and others trying to get out of positions before America goes on holiday.

December oats were 21 cents per bushel down Monday, with March, May and July all down 14 cents.

Most other crops were only a few cents down, dropping one to six pennies, but most everything was red.

Canola was an exception, rising $1.60 per tonne for January and 70 cents for March. That echoed the strong day in soybean oil prices.

Some U.S. stock markets broke new records Monday, with good signs of real American economic growth, while overseas some economies continue to weaken.

Anheuser-Busch InBev announced that the company’s famous Clydesdales would not appear in this year’s Christmas advertising, although they will appear in Super Bowl ads and other campaigns.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 73 cents at US$75.78 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US88.64 cents, down from US88.98 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.1282.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jan 2015    432.60    +1.60    +0.37%
Canola Mar 2015    434.20    +0.70    +0.16%
Canola May 2015    435.50    +0.90    +0.21%
Canola Jul 2015    436.00    +1.20    +0.28%
Canola Nov 2015    431.50    +1.00    +0.23%

Milling Wheat Dec 2014    226.00    -1.00    -0.44%
Milling Wheat Mar 2015    234.00    -1.00    -0.43%
Milling Wheat May 2015    237.00    -1.00    -0.42%

Durum Wheat Dec 2014    356.50    unch    0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2015    357.50    unch    0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2015    357.50    unch    0.00%

Barley Dec 2014    164.00    +1.00    +0.61%
Barley Mar 2015    166.00    unch    0.00%
Barley May 2015    166.00    unch    0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Jan 2015    1033.75    -5.25    -0.51%
Soybeans Mar 2015    1039.75    -6.25    -0.60%
Soybeans May 2015    1045.75    -6.5    -0.62%
Soybeans Jul 2015    1049.5    -6.75    -0.64%
Soybeans Aug 2015    1048.75    -7    -0.66%
Soybeans Sep 2015    1025.75    -7.5    -0.73%

Soybean Meal Dec 2014    374.9    -3.5    -0.92%

Soybean Meal Jan 2015    362.6    -4.6    -1.25%
Soybean Meal Mar 2015    349.8    -5.1    -1.44%

Soybean Oil Dec 2014    33.2    +0.51    +1.56%
Soybean Oil Jan 2015    33.36    +0.56    +1.71%
Soybean Oil Mar 2015    33.58    +0.58    +1.76%

Corn Dec 2014    367.5    -5.25    -1.41%
Corn Mar 2015    380.25    -5    -1.30%
Corn May 2015    389.25    -5    -1.27%
Corn Jul 2015    396.25    -5    -1.25%
Corn Sep 2015    402.5    -5    -1.23%

Oats Dec 2014    305.5    -21.25    -6.50%
Oats Mar 2015    312    -14    -4.29%
Oats May 2015    312.75    -14.5    -4.43%
Oats Jul 2015    312.25    -14    -4.29%
Oats Sep 2015    307.5    -13    -4.06%

Wheat Dec 2014    542.25    -5    -0.91%
Wheat Mar 2015    549.5    -4    -0.72%
Wheat May 2015    557    -3.5    -0.62%
Wheat Jul 2015    562.75    -3.25    -0.57%
Wheat Sep 2015    571.25    -3.25    -0.57%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2014    579    -4.25    -0.73%
Spring Wheat Mar 2015    589.5    -2.5    -0.42%
Spring Wheat May 2015    597.75    -2.5    -0.42%
Spring Wheat Jul 2015    606    -2    -0.33%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015    614.25    -1.75    -0.28%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2014    604.25    +0.25    +0.04%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015    605.75    -1.25    -0.21%
Hard Red Wheat May 2015    607.75    -1.75    -0.29%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015    606.25    -2.5    -0.41%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015    616.75    -3    -0.48%