Wheat, soybeans rally on USDA reports, canola follows

Kansas winter wheat futures jumped three percent, Minneapolis spring wheat rose about two percent and soybeans climbed almost three percent on Thursday thanks to a set of bullish USDA reports.

Canola rose but again lagged behind soybeans. The loonie rose, limiting canola’s rise.

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March canola closed the day above $500 a tonnes again, gaining $4.20 or 0.84 percent at $502.30.

The USDA report put the winter wheat seeded area at 32.38 million acres, less than the average of analysts’ forecast at 34.14 million and down 10 percent from last year’s 36.14 million.

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That would be the smallest since 1909 and the second smallest since the record began.

STOCKS LIMIT GAINS

Gains in wheat were limited by the USDA report’s stocks numbers. Wheat stocks as of Dec. 1 were slightly larger than the average of trade expectations and the USDA also raised its forecast for 2016-17 year end wheat carryout to 1.186 billion bushels, up from the trade’s expectation of 1.148 billion.

USDA pegged world wheat year-end carryout at 253.29 million tonnes, up from 252.14 million in December. (However, it must be remembered that 111.59 million tonnes of that are held in China and are unlikely to ever be available for international trade.)

SOYBEANS

Soybeans rallied as the USDA cut its estimate of the 2016-17 US harvest to 4.307 billion bu., down from 4.361 billion in the December estimate.

It also cut U.S. soybean ending stocks to 420 million bushels, down from 480 million in December.

However, it increased its forecast of South American soybean production.

It pegged Brazil’s crop at 104 million tonnes, up from 102 million in December. It kept Argentina’s crop at 57 million tonnes, even with excessive rain that plagued the end of seeding. Domestic Argentine forecasts have the crop closer to 56 million tonnes.

Still, global ending stocks in the report shrank to 82.32 million, down from 82.85 in December, but up from 77.19 million last year.

The weekly soybean export report showed weekly soybean sales were less than expect for a second consecutive week, indicating that business might be shifting to Brazil where harvest has begun early.

CORN

The USDA slightly trimmed its estimate of the U.S. corn harvest and the forecast for year-end stocks, but not enough to lift futures significantly.

March corn closed up just one penny per bushel.

RAIN

Significant rain is still forecast for dry areas of the southern U.S. Plains this weekend but the heaviest accumulations appear to shifting eastward away from central Oklahoma and toward Arkansas.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 76 cents to US$53.01 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US76.16 cents, up from 75.57 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3130.

Profit taking after recent gains lower stocks markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 63.28 points, or 0.32 percent, to 19,891, the S&P 500 lost 4.88 points, or 0.21 percent, to 2,270.44 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 16.16 points, or 0.29 percent, to 5,547.49.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 73.38 points, or 0.47 percent, at 15,418.1

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Mar 2017 502.30 +4.20 +0.84%

Canola May 2017 509.20 +4.40 +0.87%

Canola Jul 2017 513.20 +4.60 +0.90%

Canola Nov 2017 493.20 +4.70 +0.96%

Canola Jan 2018 495.10 +4.80 +0.98%

Milling Wheat Mar 2017 241.00 +4.00 +1.69%

Milling Wheat May 2017 242.00 +4.00 +1.68%

Milling Wheat Jul 2017 240.00 +3.00 +1.27%

Durum Wheat Mar 2017 317.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2017 320.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2017 323.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Mar 2017 139.00 -3.00 -2.11%

Barley May 2017 141.00 -3.00 -2.08%

Barley Jul 2017 142.00 -3.00 -2.07%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Jan 2017 1032.00 +29.00 +2.89%

Soybeans Mar 2017 1040.25 +28.75 +2.84%

Soybeans May 2017 1049.00 +28.50 +2.79%

Soybeans Jul 2017 1055.25 +27.50 +2.68%

Soybeans Aug 2017 1051.50 +25.50 +2.49%

Soybeans Sep 2017 1033.00 +22.00 +2.18%

Soybean Meal Jan 2017 324.20 +13.50 +4.35%

Soybean Meal Mar 2017 327.90 +13.00 +4.13%

Soybean Meal May 2017 330.20 +12.50 +3.93%

Soybean Oil Jan 2017 35.85 +0.06 +0.17%

Soybean Oil Mar 2017 36.07 +0.07 +0.19%

Soybean Oil May 2017 36.33 +0.08 +0.22%

Corn Mar 2017 358.25 +1.00 +0.28%

Corn May 2017 364.75 +0.75 +0.21%

Corn Jul 2017 371.75 +0.75 +0.20%

Corn Sep 2017 378.75 +0.75 +0.20%

Corn Dec 2017 386.00 +0.25 +0.06%

Oats Mar 2017 235.75 +4.00 +1.73%

Oats May 2017 234.75 +4.25 +1.84%

Oats Jul 2017 234.50 +4.00 +1.74%

Oats Sep 2017 234.50 unch 0.00%

Oats Dec 2017 231.00 unch 0.00%

Wheat Mar 2017 426.25 +7.50 +1.79%

Wheat May 2017 439.25 +7.00 +1.62%

Wheat Jul 2017 453.50 +6.25 +1.40%

Wheat Sep 2017 467.50 +6.50 +1.41%

Wheat Dec 2017 483.25 +6.25 +1.31%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 2017 574.00 +12.50 +2.23%

Spring Wheat May 2017 560.75 +9.75 +1.77%

Spring Wheat Jul 2017 554.50 +8.00 +1.46%

Spring Wheat Sep 2017 556.75 +6.75 +1.23%

Spring Wheat Dec 2017 563.50 +7.50 +1.35%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 444.75 +13.00 +3.01%

Hard Red Wheat May 2017 456.75 +13.25 +2.99%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 468.75 +14.00 +3.08%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 482.25 +13.00 +2.77%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017 499.75 +11.75 +2.41%

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)

Live Cattle (P) Feb 2017 117.48 -1.65 -1.39%

Live Cattle (P) Apr 2017 116.48 -1.42 -1.20%

Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017 106.82 -0.96 -0.89%

Feeder Cattle (P) Jan 2017 130.32 -1.73 -1.31%

Feeder Cattle (P) Mar 2017 127.75 -1.88 -1.45%

Feeder Cattle (P) Apr 2017 127.30 -1.77 -1.37%

Lean Hogs (P) Feb 2017 65.95 +0.35 +0.53%

Lean Hogs (P) Apr 2017 69.55 +0.05 +0.07%

Lean Hogs (P) May 2017 74.32 -0.21 -0.28%

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