Wheat futures were hammered lower by profit taking and ideas that the spring wheat rally had gone too far, too fast.
However, canola rallied for the seventh straight session, with November climbing $7.60 to $518.40 per tonne. Soon to expire July was up $6.10 at $573.30.
In spring heat, the most traded September contract fell 50 ¾ cents a bushel or 6.2 percent.
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Nothing changed in the weather outlook. The forecast calls for continued very hot weather across the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Northern Plains with little rain.
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But rain is in the seven-day forecast for the heart of the Midwest in Iowa and Illinois, although the totals fall off towards the west of Iowa.
Extended forecasts to the end of the month show the Prairies remaining hot and mostly dry.
But Midwest temperatures stay normal to cool through the month although there is a below normal precipitation trend for the month in that corn and soybean region.
US CROP CONDITION
Yesterday’s USDA crop condition report showed a surprise improvement in the corn good-to-excellent rating, up one point to 68 percent. The trade expected a two point decline.
The soybean crop was 64 percent good to excellent, a drop of two points, as expected.
Spring wheat dropped three points to 37 percent, one more than expected.
PRIVATE FORECAST
Informa Economics today estimated U.S. all-wheat production at 1.783 billion bushels. That is below the USDA June forecast of 1.824 billion. Last year the crop was 2.31 billion.
The total consists of 1.281 billion bu. of winter hard and soft wheat (1.427 last year), 434 million bu. of spring wheat (493 million last year), and 67 million bu. of durum (104 million last year).
Informa’s estimate for corn production is 14.166 billion bushels up from its last estimate of 14.077 billion. USDA’s June forecast was 14.065 billion.
Informa slightly trimmed its corn yield forecast but raised its seeded acres number to reflect the seeded acreage report from the USDA.
Informa’s forecast for U.S. soybeans is 4.253 billion bu., near its mid-June forecast of 4.255 billion. I
USDA’s June forecast was 4.255 billion.
USDA’s July report comes out next Wednesday.
SASKATCHEWAN CROP REPORT
Today’s Saskatchewan crop report had little to say about crop conditions. Here is what it said about crop staging:
“Overall, crops are at their normal stages of development for this time of year; however, there are some crops that are behind due to moisture issues. Twenty-six percent of the fall cereals are in the dough stage while nine percent of the spring cereals are in the heading stage. Two percent of the flax, 30 percent of the canola and mustard and 37 percent of the pulse crops are flowering.”
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Crude oil futures bounce back a bit from the sharp drop on Wednesday but were lackluster even with a sharper-than-expected decline in U.S. weekly crude oil and gasoline stocks.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 39 cents at US$45.52 per barrel.
Tensions over North Korea’s missile launches weighed on stock markets.
Also some U.S. employment data came in weaker than expected.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US77.07 cents, steady with 77.07 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2975.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 75.24 points, or 0.50 percent, at 15,077.88.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 158.13 points, or 0.74 percent, to 21,320.04, the S&P 500 lost 22.79 points, or 0.94 percent, to 2,409.75 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 61.39 points, or 1 percent, to 6,089.46.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2017 518.40 +7.60 +1.49%
Canola Jan 2018 522.30 +6.70 +1.30%
Canola Mar 2018 526.30 +5.80 +1.11%
Canola May 2018 528.00 +4.30 +0.82%
Canola Jul 2018 529.10 +4.10 +0.78%
Milling Wheat Oct 2017 300.00 -17.00 -5.36%
Milling Wheat Dec 2017 303.00 -20.00 -6.19%
Milling Wheat Mar 2018 306.00 -17.00 -5.26%
Durum Wheat Oct 2017 274.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2017 275.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2018 277.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2017 140.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2017 140.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2018 140.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Jul 2017 980.75 +4.50 +0.46%
Soybeans Aug 2017 985.75 +4.00 +0.41%
Soybeans Sep 2017 990.75 +4.25 +0.43%
Soybeans Nov 2017 999.25 +5.00 +0.50%
Soybeans Jan 2018 1006.75 +5.25 +0.52%
Soybeans Mar 2018 1004.25 +5.00 +0.50%
Soybean Meal Jul 2017 320.00 +3.50 +1.11%
Soybean Meal Aug 2017 322.00 +3.70 +1.16%
Soybean Meal Sep 2017 324.10 +3.60 +1.12%
Soybean Oil Jul 2017 32.83 -0.32 -0.97%
Soybean Oil Aug 2017 32.90 -0.34 -1.02%
Soybean Oil Sep 2017 33.03 -0.34 -1.02%
Corn Jul 2017 380.25 -1.50 -0.39%
Corn Sep 2017 390.50 -1.50 -0.38%
Corn Dec 2017 402.75 -1.25 -0.31%
Corn Mar 2018 412.25 -1.00 -0.24%
Corn May 2018 417.25 -1.00 -0.24%
Oats Jul 2017 272.75 -7.00 -2.50%
Oats Sep 2017 274.50 -11.25 -3.94%
Oats Dec 2017 276.25 -11.00 -3.83%
Oats Mar 2018 276.00 -11.25 -3.92%
Oats May 2018 277.25 -10.00 -3.48%
Wheat Jul 2017 519.00 -20.25 -3.76%
Wheat Sep 2017 539.00 -21.00 -3.75%
Wheat Dec 2017 561.25 -18.75 -3.23%
Wheat Mar 2018 578.00 -15.50 -2.61%
Wheat May 2018 586.75 -12.00 -2.00%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Jul 2017 763.25 -47.25 -5.83%
Spring Wheat Sep 2017 769.00 -50.75 -6.19%
Spring Wheat Dec 2017 760.75 -43.00 -5.35%
Spring Wheat Mar 2018 746.75 -39.00 -4.96%
Spring Wheat May 2018 735.00 -36.00 -4.67%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 530.50 -20.75 -3.76%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 546.50 -23.00 -4.04%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017 572.25 -22.00 -3.70%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2018 585.25 -21.50 -3.54%
Hard Red Wheat May 2018 593.00 -20.75 -3.38%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)
Live Cattle (P) Aug 2017 114.95 +1.40 +1.23%
Live Cattle (P) Oct 2017 113.88 +1.05 +0.93%
Live Cattle (P) Dec 2017 114.55 +1.02 +0.90%
Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2017 144.62 +2.40 +1.69%
Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2017 144.78 +2.06 +1.44%
Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2017 143.82 +1.54 +1.08%
Lean Hogs (P) Jul 2017 91.48 -0.57 -0.62%
Lean Hogs (P) Aug 2017 82.65 -1.93 -2.28%
Lean Hogs (P) Oct 2017 70.72 -1.41 -1.95%
