Chicago wheat futures rose for the sixth consecutive day on Wednesday, still enjoying support from concerns about cold damage to the U.S. winter wheat crop.
Chicago wheat’s 0.5 percent gain today was modest compared to the 3.68 percent gain on Tuesday after monthly USDA state reports that downgraded the condition status of wheat crops in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. March KBOT wheat rose 0.73 percent today and Minneapolis wheat rose almost one percent.
In addition to the cold damage, concerns had risen about lack of moisture this winter in the U.S. plains, but a storm Tuesday dumped about 25 centimetres of snow in some places.
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Chicago Board of Trade corn futures firmed on Friday on support from strong international demand, concerns over disease in the U.S. Midwest and technical support, analysts said.
Weather could also be creating challenges for wheat crops elsewhere. More on that later.
Canola fell despite support from soybeans and soy oil, which closed higher.
All the canola old crop months fell $2.50 with March closing at $427 a tonne. Tuesday’s modest rally marked a selling opportunity that pressured prices.
Also, the Statistics Canada Dec. 31 stocks report released Tuesday, which confirm huge stocks of the oilseed, weighed on the price.
Losses were limited by stronger soy oil, which rose on short covering and a modest gain in soybeans, which have been supported by strong exports of U.S. soy meal, as shipments from South America have not yet begun. Also, the cold weather in the U.S. this week is increasing demand for livestock feed, including soy meal.
But soybean gains were limited by the expectation of a bumper South American soybean crop. The pace of harvest is picking up but the peak is still several weeks away.
Old crop corn edged higher on strong U.S. exports. New crop corn edged lower as the market wants to discourage spring acreage.
Reuters polls show the trade expects USDA to trim its forecasts of 2013-14 U.S. and world corn ending stocks in its monthly supply-demand reports due on Monday.
WEATHER
While the assumption of a huge South American crop remains, the long string of near perfect global crop growing weather might be coming to an end.
A decline in the condition of the U.S. hard red winter wheat crop was revealed on Tuesday and today there are reports that Ukraine’s winter wheat crop might also be suffering from a recent spate of severe cold.
Ukraine had been unusually warm early in January with little snow cover but then snow fell later in the month. French consultancy Agritel said that the recent cold snap in Ukraine dropped soil temperatures in some places to -17C, enough to harm winter wheat.
On the other hand, a report from the U.S. agricultural attaché Feb. 4 indicated that damage from the recent cold was not likely serious yet but could become so if the cold continued.
Until last week Ukraine’s crop was in good condition. There were rain delays at seeding last fall but a dry open October allowed them to get most of the crop in. Winter wheat was seeded on 15.67 million acres, down about a million acres from the previous year.
Agrimoney.com noted a report from Australia & New Zealand Bank that said weather models are giving a better chance of an El Nino developing later this year, although the chance is only about 47 percent of one developing by August.
If an El Nino develops it could affect Australian wheat production in the coming crop year.
There was a big gain in March oats today, reflecting the shortages in the futures contract delivery zone.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Mar 2014 427.00 -2.60 -0.61%
Canola May 2014 437.50 -2.50 -0.57%
Canola Jul 2014 446.50 -2.50 -0.56%
Canola Nov 2014 461.30 -2.90 -0.62%
Canola Jan 2015 466.80 -2.90 -0.62%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 184.00 +2.00 +1.10%
Milling Wheat May 2014 188.00 +2.00 +1.08%
Milling Wheat Jul 2014 190.00 +1.00 +0.53%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 245.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2014 249.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2014 250.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 126.50 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2014 128.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2014 128.50 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Mar 2014 1316.25 +3 +0.23%
Soybeans May 2014 1299.5 +2 +0.15%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1280.75 +1.25 +0.10%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1236.5 +3 +0.24%
Soybeans Sep 2014 1162.25 +2.25 +0.19%
Soybeans Nov 2014 1112.5 +2 +0.18%
Soybean Meal Mar 2014 442 -5 -1.12%
Soybean Meal May 2014 422.8 -2 -0.47%
Soybean Meal Jul 2014 411.6 -1.6 -0.39%
Soybean Oil Mar 2014 38.23 +0.52 +1.38%
Soybean Oil May 2014 38.51 +0.5 +1.32%
Soybean Oil Jul 2014 38.82 +0.48 +1.25%
Corn Mar 2014 443.25 +1.5 +0.34%
Corn May 2014 447.5 -0.25 -0.06%
Corn Jul 2014 452.25 -0.5 -0.11%
Corn Sep 2014 454 -1.5 -0.33%
Corn Dec 2014 457 -2.25 -0.49%
Oats Mar 2014 443.25 +18.75 +4.42%
Oats May 2014 380.75 +9 +2.42%
Oats Jul 2014 341.75 +4 +1.18%
Oats Sep 2014 326 +8.75 +2.76%
Oats Dec 2014 305.25 +3 +0.99%
Wheat Mar 2014 587.5 +3 +0.51%
Wheat May 2014 589.25 +2.5 +0.43%
Wheat Jul 2014 593.25 +3.25 +0.55%
Wheat Sep 2014 601.5 +3 +0.50%
Wheat Dec 2014 614.25 +3 +0.49%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 629.5 +6 +0.96%
Spring Wheat May 2014 621.5 +3.75 +0.61%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 627.5 +3.5 +0.56%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 635.5 +3.5 +0.55%
Spring Wheat Dec 2014 648.25 +3 +0.46%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 651.25 +4.75 +0.73%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 641.25 +3.75 +0.59%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 633 +2.5 +0.40%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014 640.5 +2 +0.31%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2014 652.25 +3.25 +0.50%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 19 cents at $97.38 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 90.08 cents US, down from 90.46 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.1101 Cdn.
Stock markets were mixed. Recent reports measuring aspects of the U.S. have given mixed messages. A report Monday on January factory activity was weaker than expected, but a report on service sector activity today was better than expected.
In early unofficial tallies —
The Toronto Stock Exchange composite index rose 55.21 points or 0.41 percent to close at 13,559.69.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 5.01 points or 0.03 percent, to end at 15,440.23.
The S&P 500 slipped 3.56 points or 0.20 percent, to close at 1,751.64.
The Nasdaq Composite dropped 19.968 points or 0.50 percent, to close at 4,011.552.
