Wheat loses steam; canola up again on short covering

Canola futures rose again Thursday on short covering and with support from soybeans, but wheat and corn were down.

The March Chicago wheat contract peaked above $7 per bushel early on continuing concerns about the crisis in Ukraine and most-traded May hit $6.96 ½, but the contracts settled lower on profit taking.

“A lot of it has to do with the fund positioning,” Brian Hoops, president and senior market analyst with Midwest Market Solutions, told Reuters.

“Most of this rally has been based off of technicals and fund short-covering, and after the funds cover all their shorts there is very little reason from a fundamental standpoint for them to continue to push higher.”

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The Ukraine issue remains only a potentiality if things get out of hand. A referendum will be held in Crimea March 16 asking residents if they want to be independent or to join Russia. The winter wheat crop was seeded last fall and spring seeding is running ahead of normal pace. Exports have not yet been limited.

The weaker wheat market pressured corn lower. Also today’s weekly U.S. corn export sales report was less that expected.

An Allendale Inc. survey of farmers estimated U.S. corn area at 92.349 million acres, down from 95.365 last year but up from USDA’s February estimate of 92 million acres.

The corn plantings would be smallest since 2011-12.

It forecast soybean area at 83.212 million acres. That is well above USDA’s Outlook forum forecast of 79.5 million acres. Last year’s area was 76.5 million acres.

Soybeans rose despite news that China had cancelled up to 600,000 tonnes of South American soybean cargoes for shipment between March and May. The market had already traded on rumours of the cancellation. In fact the market expected a larger cancellation, so the confirmation was not a big deal.

Soy also found support in the fact that there haven’t been large cancelations of U.S. shipments. Also a ship ran aground in a key Argentina port limiting exports from that country.

Weekly U.S. soybean export sales were slightly below expectations for old crop but well above expectations for new crop.

The lack of cancellations of U.S. soy continues to support the market, but many traders believe it will eventually happen.

The impact might be limited by the fact that the U.S. is already in danger of selling more soybeans than it has.

Worries about the health of the Chinese economy hung over the market.

Palm oil fell for a third day as its rally ran out of steam. Rain is expected in dry areas this weekend. Also the market does not want to get ahead of itself before it sees new export date to be issued in the next few days.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Mar 2014 443.30 -0.10 -0.02%

Canola May 2014 456.10 +2.00 +0.44%

Canola Jul 2014 465.00 +2.20 +0.48%

Canola Nov 2014 481.80 +2.10 +0.44%

Canola Jan 2015 488.70 +1.80 +0.37%

Milling Wheat Mar 2014 211.00 -3.00

Milling Wheat May 2014 217.00 -3.00

Milling Wheat Jul 2014 215.00 -4.00

Durum Wheat Mar 2014 245.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2014 249.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2014 250.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Mar 2014 126.50 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2014 128.50 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2014 128.50 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Mar 2014 1390.75 +9 +0.65%

Soybeans May 2014 1396.25 +9.25 +0.67%

Soybeans Jul 2014 1378 +9.5 +0.69%

Soybeans Aug 2014 1339 +9.75 +0.73%

Soybeans Sep 2014 1238 +3.75 +0.30%

Soybeans Nov 2014 1179.75 +3.5 +0.30%

Soybean Meal Mar 2014 449.6 +1.3 +0.29%

Soybean Meal May 2014 441.9 +5.4 +1.24%

Soybean Meal Jul 2014 430.5 +4.5 +1.06%

Soybean Oil Mar 2014 42.77 -0.43 -1.00%

Soybean Oil May 2014 42.99 -0.43 -0.99%

Soybean Oil Jul 2014 43.07 -0.43 -0.99%

Corn Mar 2014 484.25 unch 0.00%

Corn May 2014 485 -3.5 -0.72%

Corn Jul 2014 489 -3 -0.61%

Corn Sep 2014 486 -2.5 -0.51%

Corn Dec 2014 484 -2.25 -0.46%

Oats Mar 2014 553.25 -4.5 -0.81%

Oats May 2014 440 -4.5 -1.01%

Oats Jul 2014 385.75 -7.75 -1.97%

Oats Sep 2014 338.75 -0.5 -0.15%

Oats Dec 2014 323.25 -5.75 -1.75%

Wheat Mar 2014 679 -9 -1.31%

Wheat May 2014 673.75 -10 -1.46%

Wheat Jul 2014 678 -10.25 -1.49%

Wheat Sep 2014 686.5 -10.25 -1.47%

Wheat Dec 2014 696.25 -10.75 -1.52%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 2014 751 unch 0.00%

Spring Wheat May 2014 720.5 -10.25 -1.40%

Spring Wheat Jul 2014 716 -10.5 -1.45%

Spring Wheat Sep 2014 714.75 -12.25 -1.69%

Spring Wheat Dec 2014 723 -14 -1.90%

Kansas City

KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 730.25 -11 -1.48%

KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 736.75 -11 -1.47%

KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 731.5 -10.5 -1.42%

KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014 737.75 -10.75 -1.44%

KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2014 747 -11.75 -1.55%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 21 cents at $98.20 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 90.44 cents US, up from 89.83 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.1057 Cdn.

Worries about a slow down in China’s economy and jitters about tensions in Ukraine shook stock markets lower.

In unofficial tallies —

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite fell 73.86 points or 0.52 percent to 14.245.14.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 230 points or 1.41 percent, to 16,110.08.

The S&P 500 lost 21.8 points or 1.17 percent, to 1,846.4.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 62.912 points or 1.46 percent, to 4,260.42.

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