Old crop canola edged higher while new crop fell and winter wheat dropped sharply on Thursday.
While the Kansas wheat tour saw many fields in western Kansas damaged by last weekend’s snow, the scouts think that on average the state will produce an above average yield, although not a high as last year’s record breaking crop.
It pegged yield at 46.1 bushels an acre
The tour’s official production estimate of 281.7 million bushels is well down from last year’s record 467.4 million bu., however, the tour used a harvested acreage number that some analysts thought was too pessimistic.
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Kansas is the largest winter wheat producing state.
“There was lots of chatter from the tour of bad-looking fields, but when they tallied up the numbers, they did not look so bad, and the market did not like it one bit,” Charlie Sernatinger, global head of grain futures at ED&F Man Capital, said in a note to clients.
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Kansas winter wheat futures have now fallen back to about the level they were at before the snow storm at the end of April.
PRAIRIES ENJOY GOOD WEATHER
Several days of summer-like weather are expected on the Canadian prairies helping to kick off the seeding season. That pressured new crop November lower.
The Saskatchewan crop report issued today said only one percent of the crop had been seeded so far behind the five year average of about four percent and well behind last year’s rapid pace of 15 percent.
The Weather Network sees an elevated possibility for light rain in southern Alberta and parts of Saskatchewan on Sunday.
Long-range forecasts for May 12-20 show a potential for larger accumulations, particularly in southern parts of the Prairies.
July canola held fairly stable, supported by expectations for tight supply as the crop year heads into its final innings.
STOCKS REPORT
Statistics Canada on Friday morning will issue its March 31 stocks report, which is based on a farmer survey and government data.
A Reuters poll pegged total canola stocks at 6.7 million tonnes on average, down 22 percent year over year, and the smallest early-spring supplies since 2013.
The same poll forecast durum stocks at 5.2 million tonnes and all-wheat at 18.3 million tonnes.
CLICK HERE TO WATCH OUR WEEKLY CROP MARKET ANALYSIS VIDEO
The heavy rain in the southern Midwest that has flooded thousands of acres is expected to end today and drier weather is now in the forecast.
Some acres might need to be reseeded, but the situation has not sparked a rally in corn and soybeans.
FRANCE WEATHER
Showers this week are partly addressing crops stress caused by one of the driest springs on record for the country.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $2.30 to US$45.52 per barrel. Even though OPEC has cut daily production by 1.8 million barrels per day, the global oversupply of oil has not diminished as production is rising in the United States, Canada and Libya. OPEC’s agreement to trim production was for six months. It meets on May 25 to decide whether to continue with the reduced production.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US72.66 cents, a little down from 72.90 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3764.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 146.44 points, or 0.94 percent at 15,396.70
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 6.43 points, or 0.03 percent, to 20,951.47, the S&P 500 gained 1.39 points, or 0.06 percent, to 2,389.52 and the Nasdaq Composite added 2.79 points, or 0.05 percent, to 6,075.34.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola May 17 523.00 +0.20 +0.04%
Canola Jul 17 522.80 +0.20 +0.04%
Canola Nov 17 501.90 -3.60 -0.71%
Canola Jan 18 506.20 -3.70 -0.73%
Canola Mar 18 510.40 -3.70 -0.72%
Milling Wheat May 17 241.00 -6.00 -2.43%
Milling Wheat Jul 17 242.00 -6.00 -2.42%
Milling Wheat Oct 17 243.00 -4.00 -1.62%
Durum Wheat May 17 273.00 +1.00 +0.37%
Durum Wheat Jul 17 273.00 unch unch
Durum Wheat Oct 17 266.00 +2.00 +0.76%
Barley May 17 137.00 unch unch
Barley Jul 17 138.00 unch unch
Barley Oct 17 140.00 unch unch
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans May 2017 965.25 -0.25 -0.03%
Soybeans Jul 2017 974.25 -1.00 -0.10%
Soybeans Aug 2017 974.00 -2.50 -0.26%
Soybeans Sep 2017 967.50 -4.25 -0.44%
Soybeans Nov 2017 964.75 -5.25 -0.54%
Soybeans Jan 2018 971.75 -5.25 -0.54%
Soybean Meal May 2017 314.10 -0.50 -0.16%
Soybean Meal Jul 2017 318.60 -0.20 -0.06%
Soybean Meal Aug 2017 319.10 -0.70 -0.22%
Soybean Oil May 2017 32.33 +0.01 +0.03%
Soybean Oil Jul 2017 32.50 -0.06 -0.18%
Soybean Oil Aug 2017 32.59 -0.07 -0.21%
Corn May 2017 358.00 -8.25 -2.25%
Corn Jul 2017 366.50 -8.25 -2.20%
Corn Sep 2017 374.00 -8.00 -2.09%
Corn Dec 2017 384.50 -7.75 -1.98%
Corn Mar 2018 394.25 -7.75 -1.93%
Oats May 2017 249.25 +3.00 +1.22%
Oats Jul 2017 244.00 +5.75 +2.41%
Oats Sep 2017 227.50 +4.50 +2.02%
Oats Dec 2017 219.50 +0.75 +0.34%
Oats Mar 2018 223.00 +0.75 +0.34%
Wheat May 2017 426.00 -17.00 -3.84%
Wheat Jul 2017 437.75 -16.25 -3.58%
Wheat Sep 2017 452.25 -15.00 -3.21%
Wheat Dec 2017 473.00 -15.00 -3.07%
Wheat Mar 2018 490.25 -14.75 -2.92%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat May 2017 535.00 -13.25 -2.42%
Spring Wheat Jul 2017 547.50 -13.75 -2.45%
Spring Wheat Sep 2017 553.50 -12.25 -2.17%
Spring Wheat Dec 2017 561.50 -10.50 -1.84%
Spring Wheat Mar 2018 569.00 -9.50 -1.64%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat May 2017 432.50 -18.00 -4.00%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 444.50 -18.75 -4.05%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 461.00 -18.00 -3.76%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017 485.00 -17.25 -3.43%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2018 498.50 -17.25 -3.34%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)
Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017 131.30 +1.25 +0.96%
Live Cattle (P) Aug 2017 124.18 +0.38 +0.31%
Live Cattle (P) Oct 2017 119.35 -0.50 -0.42%
Feeder Cattle (P) May 2017 148.28 -5.02 -3.27%
Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2017 157.92 -2.18 -1.36%
Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2017 156.60 -2.72 -1.71%
Lean Hogs (P) May 2017 69.00 +1.05 +1.55%
Lean Hogs (P) Jun 2017 76.48 +0.93 +1.23%
Lean Hogs (P) Jul 2017 77.35 +0.95 +1.24%
