WEEKLY WRAP: May canola rises $25.90 on week as farmer look for warmer weather

Canola closed little changed on Friday even though the Statistics Canada seeding intentions report was somewhat bearish for the oilseed.

It was generally a neutral day in the grain markets and the Canadian dollar was a little lower.

StatsCan said canola area would rise 10 percent to a record 22.39 million acres.

Analysts were surprised by an increase in spring wheat area, up eight percent at 16.66 million. They expected a slight decline.

The decline in durum was expected. It fell 17 percent to 5.15 million acres.

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U.S. grains: Soybean futures hit one-month high on U.S.-China trade hopes

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures hit their highest level in a month on Monday on renewed optimism over U.S.-China trade talks after U.S. President Donald Trump said he believed Beijing would agree to a soybean trade deal and will buy U.S. soy again.

There was huge increase in soybean area in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, bringing the national total to almost seven million acres, an increase of 27 percent.

Lentils were down 25 percent and peas down six percent.

May canola closed up $6.30 at 525.90.

New crop November closed down $1.60 at $492.10.

Over the week, May rose $25.90 while November climbed $11.90.

The expectations of tight year end supplies and the snow and rain that damaged over-wintered canola on the Easter weekend provided strong support to old crop prices.

Wheat futures ended little changed on the day, even with the larger than expected Canadian acreage. Improved soil moisture in the southern U.S. wheat belt put downward pressure on wheat prices but dry weather in western Europe provided offsetting support.

Corn edged lower while soybeans edged higher.

CANOLA DEMAND

Canola crush for the week to April 19 fell 10 percent to 172,994 tonnes, said the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.

That represented 81 percent of industry capacity, short of the year to date performance of 90 percent.

The canola crush is 13 percent of last year at this point.

The canola crush margin is weakening as old crop canola gains on the soy complex, however, the margin remains in positive territory.

EXPORTS

Canola exports for week 37 to April 16 fell to 205,400 tonnes from 248,100 the week before.

For the year, exports are 7.81 million tonnes, up almost 10 percent over last year.

Exports of all grains were stronger with good movement of wheat, peas and soybeans bringing the total to 807,400 tonnes, up from the previous week’s 647,300 tonnes.

Vancouver cleared nine ships during the week and Prince Rupert three.

The number of ships in the Vancouver line up remained at 27 while the line up at Prince Rupert was steady at three vessels.

WEATHER

Regular showers and rain, especially in the southern Midwest could delay American seeding plans.

Farmers in Western Canada would like to see warmer sunny weather to dry and warm up soil for planting.

It is too dry in western Europe. Rain is expected in Germany next week but it appears that it will miss France and Spain.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $1.09 to US$49.62 per barrel. The market is concerned that rising U.S. production and high inventories will more than offset the cuts that OPEC is making.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US74.04 cents, down from 74.21 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3506.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 11.08 points, or 0.07 percent, at 15,614.48. It gained 0.5 percent on the week.

U.S. President Donald Trump said he would have a major tax reform announcement on Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 30.95 points, or 0.15 percent, to 20,547.76, the S&P 500 lost 7.15 points, or 0.30 percent, to 2,348.69 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 6.26 points, or 0.11 percent, to 5,910.52.

For the week, the Dow rose 0.5 percent, the S&P gained 0.8 percent and the Nasdaq advanced 1.8 percent in what was the first weekly gain for the top indexes over the last three weeks.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola May 2017 525.90 +6.30 +1.21%

Canola Jul 2017 520.00 +4.30 +0.83%

Canola Nov 2017 492.10 -1.60 -0.32%

Canola Jan 2018 495.90 -1.70 -0.34%

Canola Mar 2018 500.00 -1.40 -0.28%

Milling Wheat May 2017 232.00 +1.00 +0.43%

Milling Wheat Jul 2017 233.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Oct 2017 230.00 +3.00 +1.32%

Durum Wheat May 2017 268.00 -3.00 -1.11%

Durum Wheat Jul 2017 267.00 -4.00 -1.48%

Durum Wheat Oct 2017 259.00 -4.00 -1.52%

Barley May 2017 137.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2017 138.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2017 140.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans May 2017 951.00 +4.25 +0.45%

Soybeans Jul 2017 960.75 +4.00 +0.42%

Soybeans Aug 2017 962.00 +3.75 +0.39%

Soybeans Sep 2017 960.25 +5.25 +0.55%

Soybeans Nov 2017 959.50 +5.75 +0.60%

Soybeans Jan 2018 966.25 +5.25 +0.55%

Soybean Meal May 2017 309.60 +1.70 +0.55%

Soybean Meal Jul 2017 313.60 +1.70 +0.55%

Soybean Meal Aug 2017 314.70 +1.80 +0.58%

Soybean Oil May 2017 31.94 +0.02 +0.06%

Soybean Oil Jul 2017 32.16 +0.04 +0.12%

Soybean Oil Aug 2017 32.26 +0.03 +0.09%

Corn May 2017 357.00 -0.75 -0.21%

Corn Jul 2017 363.75 -0.50 -0.14%

Corn Sep 2017 371.00 -0.75 -0.20%

Corn Dec 2017 382.00 -0.50 -0.13%

Corn Mar 2018 391.75 -0.50 -0.13%

Oats May 2017 217.50 -4.25 -1.92%

Oats Jul 2017 216.25 -1.75 -0.80%

Oats Sep 2017 214.50 -1.75 -0.81%

Oats Dec 2017 216.00 -1.25 -0.58%

Oats Mar 2018 223.50 -2.00 -0.89%

Wheat May 2017 405.00 -1.25 -0.31%

Wheat Jul 2017 421.00 -0.75 -0.18%

Wheat Sep 2017 435.50 -1.00 -0.23%

Wheat Dec 2017 459.25 -0.25 -0.05%

Wheat Mar 2018 478.25 +0.50 +0.10%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 2017 526.50 -0.50 -0.09%

Spring Wheat Jul 2017 535.50 unch 0.00%

Spring Wheat Sep 2017 542.25 +0.25 +0.05%

Spring Wheat Dec 2017 551.25 +0.75 +0.14%

Spring Wheat Mar 2018 561.25 +1.50 +0.27%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat May 2017 404.50 +1.75 +0.43%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 417.25 +1.75 +0.42%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 433.75 +2.00 +0.46%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017 460.50 +1.75 +0.38%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2018 478.25 +1.75 +0.37%

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)

Live Cattle (P) Apr 2017 129.80 +0.18 +0.14%

Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017 116.70 +0.23 +0.20%

Live Cattle (P) Aug 2017 112.78 -0.02 -0.02%

Feeder Cattle (P) Apr 2017 138.55 +0.65 +0.47%

Feeder Cattle (P) May 2017 139.25 -0.50 -0.36%

Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2017 142.25 -0.20 -0.14%

Lean Hogs (P) May 2017 63.02 -0.78 -1.22%

Lean Hogs (P) Jun 2017 68.32 -0.36 -0.52%

Lean Hogs (P) Jul 2017 69.52 -0.66 -0.94%

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