Weather stress drives crop prices higher Monday

Canola futures rose about 2.5 percent and spring wheat jumped more than four percent as crop-stressing weather again moved to the forefront of traders’ attention.

September corn and soybeans rallied almost 2.7 percent. Corn and November canola were the highest in a year.

The forecast for heat in the western corn belt as the crop there pollinates supported prices.

After a hot weekend, western Canada will see more moderate temperatures and increased chances for thunderstorms tonight and Tuesday. Hot, dry weather is expected to again cover most of the Prairies by Thursday.

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Corn in the heart of the Midwest is particularly vulnerable to weather stress this month during pollination, its key reproductive phase.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture in May projected the 2017 U.S. corn yield at 170.7 bushels per acre based on historical trends. But some analysts think this season’s yield ultimately could fall short.

“It is possible that we could stress the crop enough to produce a sub-160 bushel per acre crop,” INTL FCStone chief commodities economist Arlan Suderman said in a note to clients.

The USDA is scheduled to release updated monthly supply/demand reports on Wednesday, although typically the government waits until August to revise its corn and soy yield forecasts.

U.S. CROP CONDITION

After the CBOT close, the USDA rated 65 percent of the U.S. corn crop in good to excellent condition, down three percentage points from 68 percent the previous week. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected a drop of 1 percentage point.

The 10-year average for this date is 67 percent good to excellent.

The USDA also lowered its condition ratings for soybeans and spring wheat.

Traders appeared to be covering short positions in corn and soy. Weekly commitments data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday showed speculators held larger-than-expected short positions, Suderman said, leaving those markets vulnerable to bouts short-covering.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 17 cents US$44.40 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US77.57 cents, down from 77.64 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2892.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 78.12 points, or 0.52 percent, at 15,105.28.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 5.82 points, or 0.03 percent, to end at 21,408.52, the S&P 500 gained 2.25 points, or 0.09 percent, to 2,427.43 and the Nasdaq Composite added 23.31 points, or 0.38 percent, to 6,176.39.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2017 530.40 +13.10 +2.53%

Canola Jan 2018 533.60 +12.80 +2.46%

Canola Mar 2018 536.90 +12.70 +2.42%

Canola May 2018 537.10 +12.20 +2.32%

Canola Jul 2018 537.80 +11.80 +2.24%

Milling Wheat Oct 2017 305.00 +8.00 +2.69%

Milling Wheat Dec 2017 313.00 +13.00 +4.33%

Milling Wheat Mar 2018 316.00 +12.00 +3.95%

Durum Wheat Oct 2017 274.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2017 275.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2018 277.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2017 140.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Dec 2017 140.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Mar 2018 140.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Jul 2017 1020.25 +28.00 +2.82%

Soybeans Aug 2017 1024.75 +27.75 +2.78%

Soybeans Sep 2017 1030.00 +27.00 +2.69%

Soybeans Nov 2017 1039.25 +26.50 +2.62%

Soybeans Jan 2018 1046.75 +27.00 +2.65%

Soybeans Mar 2018 1043.00 +28.25 +2.78%

Soybean Meal Jul 2017 336.40 +9.50 +2.91%

Soybean Meal Aug 2017 338.20 +9.10 +2.77%

Soybean Meal Sep 2017 340.20 +8.90 +2.69%

Soybean Oil Jul 2017 33.62 +0.87 +2.66%

Soybean Oil Aug 2017 33.68 +0.93 +2.84%

Soybean Oil Sep 2017 33.81 +0.88 +2.67%

Corn Jul 2017 391.75 +10.25 +2.69%

Corn Sep 2017 402.00 +10.50 +2.68%

Corn Dec 2017 414.75 +10.75 +2.66%

Corn Mar 2018 423.75 +10.75 +2.60%

Corn May 2018 428.00 +10.50 +2.51%

Oats Jul 2017 306.00 +26.25 +9.38%

Oats Sep 2017 290.00 +7.25 +2.56%

Oats Dec 2017 290.25 +6.00 +2.11%

Oats Mar 2018 291.25 +6.25 +2.19%

Oats May 2018 291.75 unch 0.00%

Wheat Jul 2017 530.50 +13.25 +2.56%

Wheat Sep 2017 550.00 +18.25 +3.43%

Wheat Dec 2017 574.00 +19.50 +3.52%

Wheat Mar 2018 590.75 +19.00 +3.32%

Wheat May 2018 599.75 +20.25 +3.49%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 2017 788.25 unch 0.00%

Spring Wheat Sep 2017 797.50 +33.25 +4.35%

Spring Wheat Dec 2017 790.50 +32.00 +4.22%

Spring Wheat Mar 2018 775.75 +28.75 +3.85%

Spring Wheat May 2018 761.00 +23.25 +3.15%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 541.00 +12.25 +2.32%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 557.25 +17.50 +3.24%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017 583.25 +18.50 +3.28%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2018 596.75 +18.75 +3.24%

Hard Red Wheat May 2018 605.25 +17.75 +3.02%

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)

Live Cattle (P) Aug 2017 113.82 -1.55 -1.34%

Live Cattle (P) Oct 2017 113.42 -0.83 -0.73%

Live Cattle (P) Dec 2017 114.10 -0.77 -0.67%

Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2017 144.68 -1.00 -0.69%

Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2017 144.68 -1.10 -0.75%

Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2017 143.42 -1.12 -0.77%

Lean Hogs (P) Jul 2017 91.48 +0.04 +0.04%

Lean Hogs (P) Aug 2017 82.00 -1.22 -1.47%

Lean Hogs (P) Oct 2017 69.95 -0.95 -1.34%

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