Weather pushes Prairie wheat higher

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Published: July 30, 2018

Hard red spring wheat bids in Western Canada climbed higher during the week ended July 27, as heat and dryness concerns in a number of key wheat growing regions of the world sparked a rally in the United States futures.

Production estimates out of Europe, the Black Sea region, and Australia were all seeing downward revisions, which could lead to more demand for North American wheat going forward.

Average Canada Western Red Spring (13.5 percent CWRS) wheat prices were up by C$16 to C$18 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices ranged from about C$229 per tonne in northwestern Saskatchewan, to as high as C$258 in eastern Manitoba.

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Quoted basis levels varied from location to location and ranged from $12 to $41 per tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting Canadian prices to U.S. dollars (C$1=US$0.7656) CWRS bids ranged from US$175 to US$197 per tonne. That would put the currency adjusted basis levels at about US$21 to US$43 below the futures.

Looking at it the other way around, if the Minneapolis futures are converted to Canadian dollars, CWRS basis levels across Western Canada range from C$27 to C$56 below the futures.

Canada Prairie Red Spring (CPRS) wheat bids were stronger, gaining anywhere from C$13 to C$15 per tonne depending on the location. Prices ranged from C$205 to C$222 per tonne.

Average durum prices were narrowly mixed, with bids in southern Saskatchewan coming in at about C$253 per tonne.

The September spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts Canada are based off of, was quoted at US$5.9250 per bushel on July 27, up by 37.50 U.S. cents from the previous week.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPRS in Canada. The September Kansas City wheat contract was quoted at US$5.3250 per bushel on July 27, up by 24.00 U.S. cents compared to the previous week.

The September Chicago Board of Trade soft wheat contract settled at US$5.3050 on July 27, which was up by 14.50 U.S. cents on the week.

The Canadian dollar settled at 76.56 U.S cents on July 27, which was up by about half a cent on the week.

About the author

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Editor - Daily News

Phil Franz-Warkentin grew up on an acreage in southern Manitoba and has reported on agriculture for over 20 years. Based in Winnipeg, his writing has appeared in publications across Canada and internationally. Phil is a trusted voice on the Prairie radio waves providing daily futures market updates. In his spare time, Phil enjoys playing music and making art.

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